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    Villagers on their motorcycles talk each other with Mount Agung volcano in the background in Karangasem, Bali, Indonesia, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017

    Freeze! Bali Volcanic Eruption Could Chill Globe for Years

    © AP Photo / Firdia Lisnawati
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    According to Zeke Hausfather, climate change researcher at University of California, Berkeley, an imminent volcanic eruption in Bali may temporarily "reduce temperatures for 2018 down to 2014 levels."

    US climate change expert Zeke Hausfather argued that the upcoming eruption of Mount Agung, a volcano in Bali, will lower the average annual temperature on Earth by about 0.2 degrees Celsius in the next five years.

    In an analysis published by the website, Hausfather recalled the "noticeable cooling effect on the Earth's climate" during the volcano's last eruption in 1963.

    Touching upon the change in temperatures after the volcano's possible new eruption, the expert said that much will depend on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s impact on the global climate in the next ten years.

    ENSO is a variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Its warming phase is known as El Nino and the cooling phase as La Nina.

    During previous volcanic eruptions, "when volcanoes were followed by an El Nino event…the average cooling was only around 0.1C or less, while volcanoes followed by La Nina events saw an average cooling of 0.3C or more," Hausfather said.

    He predicted that if the new Mount Agung volcano eruption occurs in 2018 and if its magnitude is on a par with the 1963 eruption, it may hamper the ongoing global warming for at least four years.

    In 2023, however, this effect will disappear, and global warming will resume its previous pace, according to Hausfather.

    Currently, volcanoes are considered to be one of the key regulators of climate on Earth. They raise surface temperatures by releasing huge masses of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which Hausfather said is "outweighed by the cooling impact of the dust and ash" they spew during an eruption.


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