MOSCOW, March 9 (Sputnik) - The global demand for crude oil can be expected to recover after a sharp drop amid price fluctuations in the second half of 2020, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Monday.
"For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90,000 barrels per day," the report read, citing the spread of coronavirus beyond China. "We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20."
Depending on how the virus spread proceeds worldwide, the watchdog has outlined its expectations under two possible scenarios.
"Our pessimistic low case assumes that countries already affected by the virus recover more slowly while the epidemic spreads further in Europe, Asia, and beyond," it said in the report, adding that "In this pessimistic case, global oil demand could decline by 730,000 barrels per day in 2020."
Conversely, if the epidemic's impact is successfully mitigated, the IAE expects global oil demand to grow by 480,000 barrels per day.
The overall forecast for the year is for oil demand to be 99.90 million barrels per day, with the annual forecast, thus, lowered by close to a million barrels per day.
As for Russia, the IAE maintained its forecast for hydrocarbon gas liquids production in 2020 at 11.59 million barrels per day, despite the Saudi-led OPEC's failure to agree on deeper production cuts.
The growth rate, therefore, will amount to 0.01 million barrels per day, according to the report.