On Wednesday, Iran joined in on a proposal tabled by Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to freeze oil production following a ministerial meeting on the issue.
The news, which resulted in Brent futures rising by over 7% to nearly $35 a barrel, followed on reports over the weekend that Iran had begun the delivery of four million barrels of oil to Europe, with three massive oil tankers setting sail out of Iran for European ports. That move came after news last month that Europe and the United States would lift sanctions against Tehran following an agreement on the country's nuclear program.
Speaking with Azerbaijan's Trend News Agency, Mehrdad Emadi, a consultant at the UK-based BetaMatrix International Consultancy, suggested that contrary to some oil experts' expectations that Iran's reentry into the global energy market would harm Russia's prospects by putting a further damper on prices, its entrance has, on the contrary offered Moscow major benefits on a strategic level.
"Furthermore, because of sanctions, refineries which have been sourcing their crude from Lukoil or Rosneft are facing legal issues when they try to supply the refined output to EU member countries," Emadi added.
"Now," with the sanctions against Iran lifted, "with the approval of Russian oil companies, these European refineries find Iranians both willing and able to fill the gap left by the reduced supply from Russia."
In the broad strategic context, Trend writes, citing the analyst, that what has developed is effectively "a win-win situation for Iran and Russia."
"Russian oil companies can continue business arrangements with European refineries and hence avoid being displaced by competitors from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq," Emadi noted. "As for the Iranian side, it is very keen to increase its presence in Europe, and this allows it to achieve this objective with a smaller cost."
"This is one of the many indications which we will see in the next 18 months," Emadi predicted.
For their part, Russian experts welcomed Emadi's analysis, suggesting that the Iranian National Iranian Oil Company's moves were pleasant, but also somewhat predictable.
"The fact," Energy Development Fund director Sergei Pikin told the independent Russian newspaper Svobodnaya Pressa, "is that during the period of sanctions, Iran had accumulated a large reserve of oil."
"At the moment when the restrictions were lifted, Iran's reserves comprised about 40-50 million barrels. It is necessary to sell these volumes. It's a good thing that Tehran is coming out onto the market gradually, instead of simply gutting prices completely. These tankers going to European ports with 4 million barrels were contracted by different buyers, and Russia's Lukoil was one of them."
With Iranian oil coming with a nearly $7 discount (being sold for about $20 a barrel), Pikin notes that Lukoil, "when it purchases the cheap Iranian oil for its refining capacities in Europe, achieves a good cost savings. The alternative is to purchase the Russian Urals-brand, which costs about $28 per barrel."
Asked about the prospects for Russian energy firms' cooperation with Iran inside the country itself, including Tehran's efforts to increase its much-needed refining capacity, Pikin noted that for the moment, the issue of sanctions has left everything up in the air.
"As the saying goes – a step to the right, a step to the left, Washington may not like it, and reintroduce restrictions against Tehran. In this situation, no one wants to risk billions. The price situation on the oil market is not conducive to this. Yes, the Iranians are in talks with many companies, but so far, they have only managed to sign a contract with a division of GE on the supply of spare parts and equipment for oil production."
At the same time, the expert said, if an opening were to emerge, "Lukoil would have a good starting position. The company has already worked in the Iranian market, knows the region and its particularities."