Among the factors that will influence the economic growth he mentioned the growth rates of the world economy (3-4% in 2004), the economic situation in the United States, the dynamics of energy products prices, correlation between the world currencies and the interest rates in the world markets.
According to Dvorkovich, "risks remain in the US economy" which are explained by the high level of unemployment and the growing budget deficit.
According to the deputy minister, there exist two variants of economic growth in Russia.
The first variant takes into account the fact that the risks of the US economy are being realized but the prices of energy products will be reduced more than it is expected and will make up $22-$23 per barrel of Urals blend. "In this case the Russian economy will grow by 4.5-5%," said the deputy minister.
According to the other variant, the US risks are not being realized and the price of the Urals blend will make up $27-$27.5 per barrel. In this case, Dvorkovich said, the Russian economic growth will be within 5.6-5.8%.
