02:49 GMT07 April 2020
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    Report from PBOC economist predicts slower growth than previously forecast.

    MOSCOW, December 14 (Sputnik) – China's economy is set to record 7.1% growth next year, less than expected, concludes a working paper written by the research center of the People's Bank of China and published on the Bank's website.

    According to a report from Bloomberg, Ma Jun, the Bank's chief economist, wrote that "The downward pressure caused by the slowdown in real estate investment," will detract from a growth in exports, due to grow 6.9% in 2015, up from 6.1% this year.

    The figure of 7.1% year on year is less than the 7.4% growth expected for 2014, and follows weaker than expected annualized growth of 7.3% for the third quarter of 2014. That calculation misses the growth target announced by the Chinese government in March of 7.5% for 2014, which is the same as in 2013. Growth in 2013 was 7.7%, beating the target by 0.2%. Growth of 7.4% this year will represent the slowest pace since 1990.

    Reuters reports Jun's estimate of fixed-asset investment growth is 12.8% for 2015, down from 15.5% this year. The report's estimate of retail sales growth was 12.2%, up from 12% this year, and forecast stability in employment due to expansion in the service sector. Import growth was forecast at 5.1% for 2015, up from 1.9% this year.

    In June the World Bank published a report which found that China's economic growth is gradually slowing as structural reforms to its economy take place. "The proposed reform measures are structural in nature," Senior Economist of the World Bank Karlis Smits observed, adding "In the medium term, these policy measures will improve the quality of China’s growth."

    The Bank however cautioned that possible risks to the gradual adjustment of the Chinese economy would constitute less demand for exports from developed countries, as well as a slowdown in investment growth and limited access to capital for sectors such as real estate.


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