The Government has set the “student travel window” to take place the week after lockdown ends in England and rapid Coronavirus tests will also be offered to students in the coming weeks. With questions surrounding the efficacy of testing procedures and the much-maligned track and trace system as well students' ability to comply with present regulations. It would seem that a lot of things need to go right, to stop things from going wrong.
Sputnik spoke to Thomas Woolley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics at Cardiff University who has helped to develop a study and an app that estimates how many secondary infections may be created by students returning home from their campus. He tells us the risks caused by large-scale movements of students and why it is so important that governments use accurate data to help in the fight against Covid-19.
Sputnik: Is there a possibility that students returning home for Christmas could contribute to a rise in COVID-19 cases?
Thomas Woolley: Any movement, whether its students or not, will create risk. So that's why we're all being told to stay home as much as possible. Now, students are a particular case of this because having been away in close confined housing, they are more at risk. Also, because of their high sociability, of taking it back home with them. So although the students may get it, they do fare better with coronavirus. Taking it home to households where there may be elderly parents, people with long term illnesses, they do create more of a risk,
Sputnik: What risks are caused by such large scale movements of students?
Thomas Woolley: The risks all come down to whether they have been infected at the university. So it's all about if they're free from infection. I hope we'll talk about that in a few minutes and the testing aspects Cardiff and other universities are applying. Then, as long as they can be set free for risk, they're absolutely fine. As long as they're careful when they're at home about who they socialise with.
No one really knows what the rules are going to be coming up to Christmas or whether we can have social bubbles. But as long as they're safe, and they act responsibly at home, then there are no worries. The risk all comes down to what the infection rates have been at university and whether they've been exposed to infection and whether they will be taking it home to their household, which could have a variety of potential additional risks such as long-term health effects.
Sputnik: You mentioned responsibility there. How great a responsibility do students returning home have to take? And how important is it that they adhere to self-isolation rules that are being implemented by the Government?
Thomas Woolley: This is an excellent question. Responsibility and who should have it is a key question. So on one side, the responsibility has come down to the students and their families. So at the very weak level, what the university could do is interact with them and completely inform them about what their risks are. If you're going home, think about the household you're going into - should you really be taking this risk with the people you're with? On the other hand, it's the responsibility of the university. The university asked all these students to come back to study. So they have to take some responsibility about sending them back to potentially being infected. So the university has to consider - should they put on testing? Should they put on staggered release dates? Should they put on only online teaching in the final weeks? Which are some of the aspects that Cardiff University are doing.
Sputnik: So we saw that when students returned to campuses for the start of the new academic year, many universities reported localised surges in the number of COVID-19 infections. And after the lockdown, as you've mentioned, these students will be leaving the confines of their campus. What other strategies can be adopted to help reduce the number of students potentially taking COVID-19 home with them?
Thomas Woolley: There is a whole range of strategies that can be used, and we'd also suggest that one should not fit all. There are a variety of local considerations to think about when applying a policy. So one thing our piece of work has done has created an online app that anyone can use and put in specific information. So if you've got local information about the infection risks, the household size, the infections in the household size, range of household size, they put that information into our app, and see how your risk will change based on who you are and where you are in the country. Now, what does that mean for universities though? They can use this to say, "Well, should we take a light approach?" "Should we be more stringent with our rules?" Because as we just mentioned, responsibility is a huge aspect of this; we can't force students to stay if prevalence of infection is high, we can only really suggest to them that it's in their best interest and their family's best interest.
So, a couple of strategies that they could do is, if the infection rate is very low, take more of an informative route and offer all the information to the students and the families so they can take the risks. If prevalence is higher, maybe think about offering tests to them and staggered release dates. One thing that Cardiff university is doing is they could be offered tests a week before they're released. They will have online lectures throughout that week, and they will be asked to isolate themselves at the very stringent end of the rules. Placing all the students on lockdown, no one wants to do that. We want all the students to go home and have a great Christmas. They've been under a lot of stress this term, just by not socialising with their friends normally. To take Christmas away from them is practically unthinkable.
Sputnik: How important is it for Government and local authorities to use accurate data that shows the potential for rise in COVID-19 cases from returning students across the UK?
Thomas Woolley: This is a great question - because it's a balance of risk when it comes to accurate information. We want to be as accurate as we can. But we want to be able to predict at the best time we can. So, after Christmas, we'll have all the information as accurate as we need it, we will have the statistics but it will be too late to predict the outcome. What we've done with the app, therefore, is we've put the power into the hands of the universities and anyone who wants to use it based on the best statistics, they can find it now or in the future. They can make better and better estimations of what strategies they should put in place. So, in terms of accuracy, as accurate as you can get it, waiting too long means you won't be able to put in place the strategies that are needed.
