Lebanon’s government resigned on Monday, less than a week after the deadly blast at Beirut port took the lives of nearly 160 people and injured 6,000 others.
This comes after mass demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday where protesters called on the government that includes the Shiite group Hezbollah to step down; with angry mobs setting up symbolic nooses at the capital's Martyrs' Square to hang politicians, whose negligence and corruption they blamed for last week's port blast.
Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Hezbollah, was one of those figures hanging at the square with protesters sending a clear message to the group’s leader that his dominance of Lebanon’s political arena was no longer wanted.
Down With Hezbollah?
The dissatisfaction with Hezbollah started long before the blast. In 2005 the group was blamed for its alleged involvement in the assassination of then Prime Minister Rafic Al Hariri, allegations it denied.
Last October, it was accused of being part of the corrupt Lebanese government that wanted to raise fuel price and considered imposing a tax on the use of Whatsapp.
And recently it has been slammed for bringing economic havoc to Lebanon after the US imposed another wave of sanctions aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s activity in the region
But now, as voices of frustration sound louder, Ali Yehiya, one of leading Beirut-based political analysts, says "there was no doubt that the consequences of the port explosion would affect Lebanon’s current leadership both politically and economically".
In fact, a political upheaval is already in the air. Following the explosion, the country's government has already submitted its resignation with Prime Minister Hassan Diab saying another election is looming.
The crowds who have already seen that a change of government does not necessarily mean a solid economic plan that can cure Lebanon’s multiple problems might not swallow that solution. And yet Yehiya says he doubts that any conflict with Hezbollah could trigger the end of the organization.
The main reason for this is its large support base. In 2019, despite the eruption of the October revolts that demanded swift economic reforms, the group is backed by 75 percent of Shiite Muslims that make up some 30 percent of the country's total population.
At least half of Beirut's population is backing the group that also enjoys the support of those living in the country's southern and northern borders.
Using Crisis as a Tool
Yehiya says the key to success lies in Hezbollah’s ability to win the hearts of the masses, especially at a time of a crisis.
The first example of such a crisis occurred in early 1980s with the eruption of the First Lebanon war with Israel, when Hezbollah played a pivotal role in confronting the IDF eventually driving the Israeli forces out of the country's south in May 2000.
Six years later, after tensions between the two flared up again, Hezbollah claimed it had protected the nation from yet another "Israeli aggression" - tactics that bore fruit with a 2006 poll revealing that Hezbollah has managed to translate that conflict into political and military gains that only grew bigger with time.
Another example occurred with the outbreak of COVID-19 in late February, when Hezbollah established a special "operations room" - a union of several expert committees that set up a tone on the handling of the pandemic; or when it a deployed thousands of doctors and 15,000 field personnel to stop the spread of the virus and treat those who had already been infected.
Hezbollah now seems to be using the same tactic again, helping the country to overcome yet another serious challenge - the repercussions of the deadly blast. Hours after the explosion, the Islamic Health Organization (IHO) which is affiliated with Hezbollah, gathered dozens of volunteers and paramedics who worked hand in hand with the army and the country's official rescue and health institutions to deal with the disaster.
It was this organization that contributed to the removal of the rubble; it cleaned the capital's streets and it helped to find those buried under the debris, boosting the image of Hezbollah as an organization that will always be there for Lebanon, no matter what.
Will that translate into political and military gains, just as it did in 2006? Yehiya says it is hard to answer that question but one thing he says is certain, Hezbollah will not be going away any time soon.
"Given its striking military power; its social institutions and the tens of thousands of monthly salaries they it is paying I find it hard to believe that Hezbollah can be removed from the regional arena." he adds.
