Sputnik spoke on the issue with Dominic Frisby, author of “How Tax has Shaped the Past and Will Change the Future.”
Sputnik: First of all, Nigel Farage is pretty vocal in his opposition to Boris Johnson's New Deal. What is your opinion on the deal that he's brought to Parliament?
Dominic Frisby: Well, it's not as good as deal is it would have been if Boris had become Prime Minister in 2016. He would have had a parliament, much more behind him. And he would have had much stronger negotiating tools. The mood was very different back then.
But under the circumstances, the deal that he's got is pretty good. But I can understand why Nigel isn't happy with it because it's not the clean break that Nigel wants. Under the circumstances, I would probably vote it through if I was in Parliament, but you know, reluctantly, and I do it just just to get to the next stage, but I can sympathize with all Nigel's criticisms.
Sputnik: Will he be able to get the deal through the House of Commons?
Dominic Frisby: I was looking at the logistics; I think he's going to get it through Parliament. I think the Spartans will go with it for the reasons I just described, to just get to the next level. I think a lot of the anti - 'No Deal' Tory MPs. The 21 guys who had the whip withdrawn, I think some of them will vote for it, because they think they'll stand a better chance that way of being reselected by the party. And I think there's a hardcore of 20 or 30 Labour MPs who will vote for it if they're in leave voting constituencies. So one way or another, I think you'll get it over the line
Sputnik: Boris Johnson, when he returned from Europe. There's a sense that he was in a win/win situation. Some people have described it as: if this bill failed to get through, he could then lead the next election campaign for the conservatives with people versus the parliament idea that the parliament was betraying the will of the people. Do you think he's in a win/win situation just now?
Dominic Frisby: To have the lack of majority that he has, and to have got where he's got in the time that he's done that is pretty incredible. He has very little power in parliament and he doesn't command a majority. But where he has all the cards, it's quite clear if there was an election tomorrow, IE before October 31. Boris stood on a 'No Deal' ticket or 'A good Deal or No Deal'.
I think most Brexit voters would go over to him. The way the seats are around the country, I've looked at the numbers, he'd had something like 370/380 seats in parliament, he'd have a huge majority. But the longer it goes on that, you know, that could change if we were to leave and it didn't work out so well that maybe people might revise their opinions. So that can change but at the moment, he's pretty strong.
But if he fudges Brexit, or he can't get Brexit through by October 31, and he tries to present it as people versus the parliament, I think his case is slightly weaker because then the Brexit party will come into play. I should say even though Boris has negotiated a great deal under the circumstances and would have done a better deal in 2016. I would think Nigel Farage would have been even better. I wish Nigel had been negotiating the deal because he knows what goes on.
Let's see what happens. But it's really important as this, you know, I guess it's maybe 20, maybe even 25% of the electorate that will swing towards the Brexit party, even as much as 30% and away from the Tories if the Tories don't deliver Brexit. So it's up to Boris, the future of the Tory party is at stake. And I think he needs to kick out the soft middle, he needs to be less David Cameron and more Margaret Thatcher.
Sputnik: We've seen the DUP cast aside by Boris Johnson in order to get this deal through. Do you think that could be a long term mistake for the Conservative Party?
Dominic Frisby: Oh my goodness me. I mean, I see why he's done it. I feel very sorry for those guys. You know, if you ask me, I'm not actually, I'm not an expert on Ireland. And I really don't feel qualified to talk about Ireland. But I'm not a great 'United Kingdom' person.
I always advocate going back to that England should be the Anglo Saxon heptarchy. My dream is to one day, I'm talking slightly tongue in cheek here, to stand for the independent nation of Curnow. I've been Cornwall. So it's the conservative and Unionist is party. I'm not a unionist in the way that the Conservative Party is. But they do seem to be sacrificing Northern Ireland a bit.
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