02:02 GMT +321 August 2019
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    Conservative Party leadership candidate Boris Johnson, gestures, during a Conservative Party leadership hustings in Cheltenham, England, Friday July 12, 2019

    Analyst: No Doubt Boris Johnson Will be Prime Minister and He'll Try to Get Some Sort of Brexit Deal

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    The Conservative Party leadership race is coming to an end; with the polls favourite to win Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal Brexit proving divisive.

    Political commentator Mandy Boylett reflects on whether Johnson will be able to pull it off should he become Prime Minister, or could it lead to an irreparable fracture amongst the Tories.  

    Sputnik: Will Boris Johnson win the Conservative Party leadership race?

    Mandy Boylett: I don’t think there’s any doubt that Boris is going to be the Prime Minister, and he will try to get some sort of a deal, maybe a stage deal, maybe a standstill position as opposed to a full withdrawal agreement, but I don’t think there’s any doubt that he will pursue no deal if he doesn’t manage to get a deal, because that is what he has said, and he would have no credibility were he to go back on that.

    You’ve got people like Philip Hammond and David Gauke who have said they won’t support a no-deal; but it all comes down to whether there’s a confidence vote in the government, would they actually vote against their own government and try and enable a Corbyn government, which even Philip Hammond and David Gauke would agree, would be far worse.

    Conservative MP and leadership contender Boris Johnson holds up kipper fish in plastic packaging as he speaks at the final Conservative Party leadership election hustings in London, on July 17, 2019
    © AFP 2019 / TOLGA AKMEN
    Conservative MP and leadership contender Boris Johnson holds up kipper fish in plastic packaging as he speaks at the final Conservative Party leadership election hustings in London, on July 17, 2019

    In many ways I feel that Boris Johnson has to call their bluff, but what he mustn’t do is try and change his mind and try and pacify them, because there will be no pacifying the likes of Hammond and Gauke, they believe in remain, they have no regard for the outcome of the referendum in 2016, and you just have to deal with them head on, and call their bluff.

    If they do call a confidence motion; I don’t know what the result of that would be, but there are plenty of Labour MPs who do support Brexit, especially from the Labour MPs in northern constituencies that voted for Brexit, and it may be that Boris would win a confidence vote anyway.

    Sputnik: Would a no-deal Brexit be as bad as many pro-remain MPs claim?

    Mandy Boylett: I don’t think it would be as bad as they say; If we had a WTO rules Brexit, the UK would actually be a net beneficiary of tariffs, because we are net importers from the EU, and economically no matter all the bluster around "oh we won’t negotiate the deal", the exporters, the actual businesses in the EU, would say "hang on, we are paying out more in tariffs here, and it’s silly."

    There’s a section in the WTO rules say that we could stay at a standstill agreement for a number of years until we work out what to do, and that would be the way to go.

    Sputnik: Could the EU come back to the negotiating table to prevent a no-deal Brexit?

    Mandy Boylett: I think it all depends on the individual leaders of the countries, and the pressure that they get from their industries. I think Ursula von der Leyen the new European Commission President will just say that the EU won’t renegotiate, a deal’s a deal and that’s it, she’s so wrapped up in everything to do with the EU that I don’t think she can see the bigger picture.

    If the individual country leaders are made to see the bigger picture by their own industries; then they could bring pressure there, now whether that will all happen before the 31st of October is anybody’s guess to be honest because it’s quite a tight deadline, especially with parliament going into recess.

    *The views expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

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