No Deal Brexit 'Not a Bad Thing' - Geopolitical Analyst

With a no deal Brexit at the forefront of the Conservative Party leadership campaign for the likes of Boris Johnson, the future of Northern Ireland and its border with the neighbouring Republic of Ireland remains a contentious issue.

But assuming that no hard border was put in place between the two, would a reversion to WTO rules have as much of a negative  economic and social impact on the region,  as many of the pro remain factions in Westminster within the Labour Party in particular, seem to so desperately believe.

Sputnik spoke with Adam Garrie, geopolitical analyst and director at Eurasia Future for more…

Sputnik: Would a no deal Brexit be as bad as many claim, and do you think that it is a realistic possibility?

Adam Garrie: A no deal Brexit is not only not a bad thing, but it’s what people voted for. When one votes to leave an organisation; it means you leave every part of that organisation.

It’s a bit like a divorce, saying that you’re not going to live with the ex-wife, but you get to see her every night when you’re feeling in a certain mood.

Real life doesn’t work that way, when businesses break up a business partnership, a former partner doesn’t get to control a certain aspect of the business that he used to have a stake in.

So this idea that a halfway Brexit, a Brexit in name only is somehow what people voted for, is not only ludicrous, but it’s deeply insulting.

The biggest problem in terms of a WTO Brexit which is what it ought to be called, is that the government has been doing it all wrong. Instead of going round for three years to Brussels with a begging cup, what the government should have been doing is talking to people like the Japanese, the Chinese, the Americans, the Indians, the Pakistanis, the Australians, the Canadians, the list goes on, all of the countries that could have STAs with the UK, that should have been the priority.

So that when the 29th of March came there should have been a clean exit from the EU, and the free trading agreements that could have been made, beginning in late 2016 could have gradually come into force.

There will be some difficulties in terms of getting all of these agreements up to speed, because they haven’t been made yet, but that’s not the fault of the people who voted for Brexit, that’s not the fault of the concept of Brexit, and it’s certainly not the fault of the people who now want to move on, and want the democratic will of the people to be executed.

Sputnik: Could Labour win the next British general election?

Adam Garrie: As for what Labour are doing they are really in a race with Theresa May’s Tories to see who can be the least popular. And the danger is that for Labour if the Tories elect a new leader who is not as frankly useless as Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, they are going to win in spite of the fact that they’ve been responsible for this malaise over the last three years.

Sputnik: How do you see the future of the Brexit Party developing?

Adam Garrie: All of that depends on what happens in October. If on the 31st of October there’s a clean break from Brussels; that means no more delays, it means not Mrs May’s dreadful deal that I think is already long dead, it’s a zombie deal if anything, if Britain leaves with a clean Brexit, on the 31st of October, it will be anyone’s guess as to what the future of the Brexit Party will be, because it will be difficult to envisage a Brexit Party once their main platform has been achieved.

When it comes to making all of the free trading agreements necessary. A lot of the members of the Brexit Party, people like Richard Tice, people like Nigel Farage, could, in fact, play an important part in negotiating on behalf of the UK, and so I could see Brexit Party perhaps transitioning to a party of trade, a free trade party, and advocating robust negotiations with trading partners, but it’s anyone’s guess in terms of if Britain leaves.

If Britain doesn’t leave on the 31st then the Brexit Party is committed to fielding candidates in every constituency in the next general election, and I think they could likely win, because if Britain doesn’t Brexit on the 31st of October, it will be down to the Tories letting the country down again, only this time under another leader, and I don’t think they’ll get a third chance to rectify that.