Scholar on Brexit: UK Divisions Are Just as Deep as They Were 3 Years Ago

UK Prime Minister Theresa May's government may “collapse” according to The Sunday Times. Sputnik discussed this with Chris Stafford, Doctoral Researcher at the University of Nottingham.

Sputnik: The Sunday Times has reported that a number of ministers from Mrs May's cabinet may resign over differences regarding the withdrawal from the European Union; it also says that at least six anti-Brexit ministers could also step down if Mrs May endorses the idea of a disorderly, no-deal Brexit. Taking this report into consideration, do you think we should expect the prime minister to make a fourth attempt to win more support for her deal?

Chris Stafford: I think she can get a fourth vote, I think she probably will, just because of how much disagreement there is over what should be done. I think another vote is potentially quite likely if she can get it through.

Sputnik: And what should we expect from a second round of indicative votes on Monday?

Chris Stafford: In the first round, there was no outright winner but the idea of some kind of a customs union was definitely the least unpopular option and also surprisingly a second referendum was also fairly popular, albeit still not popular enough to get a majority in the House. At least for me, it was more popular with MPs than many expected it to be, so I would say those two.

Sputnik: European Union leaders are scheduled to hold an emergency summit on 10 April to consider Britain's request for a further extension. What's your forecast concerning this summit?

Chris Stafford: it is hard to say because it will probably depend on the next round of these indicative votes. If parliament can agree on something, an alternate way forward with a good enough majority, then I think potentially in this emergency meeting they might prolong the extension so we might discuss the possibility, but it really depends on whether parliament can agree on something.

Sputnik: Why in your view has the Brexit process turned out to be so complicated and what do you make of the European Union's role in the process of Britain's withdrawal from the bloc?

Chris Stafford: In my opinion, it has been so complicated and difficult because there were no real preparations before the referendum for leaving, and I think when people voted to leave they didn't vote for a specific way to leave, so obviously we've had to try and figure that out afterwards and there's no real agreement on what the best way to leave is.

With regards to the European Union, I think what's interesting is that compared to the chaos in Britain, the European Union itself has been actually been quite unified, they've had sort of a single position for quite some time now, and I think they've sort of stuck to their guns, whether you agree with what they've been pushing forward or not, they have been consistent throughout the whole process.

READ MORE: UK Parliament Rejects All Brexit Options in 2nd Round of Indicative Votes

Sputnik: If a second referendum is held, what results can we expect?

Chris Stafford: There's a chance that remain might win at this time, but if they do, I think it will probably be a very close result just like the last time, the divisions are just as deep as they were almost 3 years ago.

READ MORE: WATCH Half-Naked Protesters Interrupt Brexit Debate in Commons Public Gallery

Sputnik: What about the no deal scenario, is it possible?

Chris Stafford: I think it's very possible, it depends on what happens on Monday but if parliament can't agree on anything I think right now, personally for me, the no deal is probably the most likely scenario, but obviously depending on what happens in parliament this week.

The views expressed in this article are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.