UK Just Buying Time to Postpone Disaster of No Deal Brexit – Analyst

PM May has announced that she would offer MPs to vote for either a no-deal Brexit or a delay to UK's withdrawal from the EU by up to 2-3 months. According to May, a vote on her Brexit deal will take place on 12 March. Sputnik discussed Brexit with Lawk Ghafuri, London-based political analyst, who specializes in international business and economy.

Sputnik: In your view how high are the chances that Brexit will be postponed?

Lawk Ghafuri: I think postponing Brexit will be on the table for the European Union as well because the European Union is confused right now by the political argument within the UK, within the Parliament let’s say, the British Parliament. I think there will be a postponing of the Brexit deal by two months as Theresa May is asking for, but the question is how much this delay or postponing will change the scenario on the political ground. I think it will not change a lot of things, it will make some slight changes, Theresa May is only going to buy some time to start making her deal again on the table for the Parliament and I think the Labour Party is asking for second referendum, so I think this two months delay is not going to change anything on the ground to be honest.

Sputnik: As you mentioned Mr. Corbyn has called for another referendum on Brexit what’s your take on this proposal?

Lawk Ghafuri: I think a second referendum it depends on what are the options of the people have to vote. I think if a second referendum has two options, which is a deal like May's deal or remain, I think the people will go for the remain, because the deal is quite a disaster for the UK economy and the UK market, so the people go for remain. But if the options are equitable, let’s say leave option and the remain, I think the people will go for the leave again just because the deal, let’s say the Brexit deal changes into a better way, and Theresa May's deal goes away from the people’s mind. I think the scenario will be either deal which is May's deal or the remain, and I think remain will win if the second referendum works in such away.

Sputnik: Mr. Corbyn said that Mrs. May is forcing lawmakers to choose between her deal and no deal at all, what are your thoughts on that?

Lawk Ghafuri: To be honest Mr. Corbyn's views on the deal by May are absolutely right because I think Theresa May's strategy or plan is to force other MPs, the Conservative MPs in the Parliament to choose her deal again after a two months delay in the future, which is I think it’s going to be quite an effort by Theresa May's team to convince other Conservative MPs to vote for May's deal, and that will be a disaster for the UK and for the democracy in the United Kingdom.

I think a second referendum, to be honest personally, I think a second referendum will be a disaster for democracy in the UK because the people of the UK already spoke out and said that they wanted to leave the European Union and the government  and also the Parliament should respect that, but at the same time the Labour Party is right that Theresa May's deal is really bad for the UK and is going to have a lot of negative impact on the UK economy and business sectors. So in both ways you can see that the UK’s just buying some time by delaying the Brexit deal to postpone the disaster of a no deal Brexit let’s say. If a no deal Brexit happens that will be a disaster for the UK and I personally think that Theresa May's deal has no difference with the no deal because if it happens, if the Brexit happens with May's plan to implement the Brexit deal there will be no difference with a no deal. I think no deal was always on the table and the risk of no deal is not going away that soon, to be honest, even after the two months delay.

Sputnik: What’s the public opinion in Britain saying about the possibility of a Brexit delay and how much confidence is there in the government?

Lawk Ghafuri: I think the public are confused right now. Let’s say that many business sectors are having difficulty to operate actively, and I think the economy, let’s say, toning down, and there’s lots of business sectors that are suffering because of the confusion within the political ground in the UK because they don’t know what’s happening with the Parliament, they don’t know what’s happening, what’s going on in Theresa May's head, they don’t know what will happen if a second referendum happens and whatever the outcome of the second referendum will be I think the business sector right now is in confusion, and they’re in a really bad position, let’s say, because they don’t know what is their fate and what awaits them in the future. As I said, if a delay happens I think that will not decrease any chances of a no deal. So I think if after two months the same deal goes through the Parliament and Theresa May fails to convince other Conservative MP's to vote for May's deal I think the no deal will happen and if a no deal happens that will be a huge disaster for UK and UK business sector.

The views and opinion expressed in this article are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect Sputnik's position.