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    Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems at a parade rehearsal outside St. Petersburg.

    S-300 Deliveries Will Put Israeli Military on Leash in Syria – Turkish Analysts

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    The Russian Defense Ministry is on course to deliver a consignment of S-300 air defense systems to Syria sometime in the next two weeks in response to Israel's role in the downing of a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft with 15 servicemen on board earlier this month.

    Speaking to Sputnik Turkey about the imminent arrival of the Russian air defense systems, which will be complemented by advanced control, centralized management and friend/foe identification systems, Turkish political analyst Dr. Volkan Ozdemir suggested that the deployment is an indication of the effective end of the Russian policy of non-interference in the Israeli-Iranian conflict over Syria.

    "From a geopolitical perspective, Russia's strategy toward the Syrian question has been built from the beginning on providing support for Damascus while performing a balancing act between Israel and Iran, two important players in the region," Ozdemir said. 

    "Russia, for a long time, sat on the sidelines of clashes between these two powers on Syrian territory, without interfering in the actions of the Israeli Air Force, which regularly struck Iranian-backed groups. However, as has been made clear by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the incident with the Il-20 radically changed the alignment of forces," he added.

    According to Ozdemir, the deployment of the S-300s in Syria could lead to the closure of Syrian airspace, not only along its Mediterranean coast, but in areas bordering Lebanon and Jordan as well. "This, in turn, will not only bring Russia, Iran and Syria closer together, but also significantly restrict the opportunities for both Israel and the West to use the Israeli military to conduct military operations in the region," the analyst stressed.

    In effect, the Il-20 incident has opened a new chapter in the Syrian crisis, Ozdemir argued. "The course of the Syrian conflict can be divided into several stages, each of them impacted, to varying degrees, by the changing balance of power on the international arena. One of these stages began on September 30, 2015, when the Russian Aerospace Forces began their anti-terrorist operation in Syria. At that time, this decision greatly influenced the alignment of forces in Syrian territory," the observer recalled.

    Ultimately, Ozdemir suggested that the Russian decision to deploy S-300s to Syria "similarly points to the start of a new stage – one where Israel can no longer attack targets in Syria so easily and without consequences, as was the case previously. And if it does decide to do so, it will face a decisive response not only from Iran and Syria, but from Russia as well," Ozdemir concluded.

    'S-300 Deliveries Put Israel in a Difficult Position'

    Dr. Hasan Unal, a political scientist from Maltepe University in Istanbul, echoed Dr. Ozdemir's sentiment. In Unal's view, the S-300 deployment serves as a "milestone from a military point of view."

    "Even the Soviet-made air defenses sent to Syria earlier have repeatedly demonstrated their high efficiency and ability to counter attacks by the Israeli Air Force. Russia's decision to supply its modified, modernized S-300 systems to Syria will put Israel in a very difficult position, providing Damascus with much more serious protection against enemy strikes," he said.

    According to Unal, it's unlikely that Israeli aircraft will risk carrying out attacks on Syrian territory as often after the S-300s are deployed.

    What's more, he said, the air defense system will help "destroy the myth created by Israel about the superiority and invulnerability of its air force…Generally speaking, this situation will undoubtedly severely restrict Israel's room for maneuver," the professor noted.

    Ultimately, Dr. Unal believes that the current strength of the Russian hand in Middle Eastern geopolitics means that it may not limit itself to the S-300 deliveries, but take additional measures, including active monitoring of Israeli activity along the Syria-Lebanon border, informing of Syrian forces about the situation in the region, and helping to maintain Syria's defenses directly.

    Il-20 Tragedy

    On the night of September 17, a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft with 15 airmen on board was mistakenly shot down by a Syrian anti-aircraft missile off the Syrian coast while returning to Hmeymim airbase. The Syrian missile launch was a response to Israeli airstrikes across multiple Syrian provinces just minutes earlier. The Russian Defense Ministry accused Israel of providing insufficient warning to allow the Russian plane to get out of harm's way, and accused the Israeli Air Force of using the aircraft as a shield against the Syrian air defenses. Tel Aviv has denied the charges, and continues to maintain that Moscow was warned about the airstrikes in a timely manner. The loss of the aircraft prompted Russia to take a series of measures to boost the security of Russian servicemen in Syria, and to provide Damascus with additional military assistance, including the S-300 air defense system. The Russian military has also said that it will carry out the radio-electronic suppression of satellite navigation, airborne radars and combat communications systems of any aircraft attacking Syrian targets, and provide the country with its friend/foe identification system, previously available only to the Russian military.

    Related:

    Russia's S-300 Supplies to Syria 'Long Overdue' - Geopolitical Analyst
    Russian S-300 Supplies to Deter Israel From Reckless Attacks on Syria - Official
    Russia's S-300 Delivery to Syria 'Appropriate Move, Game Changer' – Ex-Diplomat
    Russia's S-300 Will be Able to Close Parts of Syrian Airspace - Moscow
    Turkey, Israel to Lose Out Most if Syria Gets S-300 From Russia - UAE Think Tank
    Delivery of S-300 to Syria to Increase Risk to US, Coalition Forces - State Dept
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    implications, expert analysis, geopolitics, analysis, S-300, Israel, Turkey, Syria, Russia
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