Sputnik discussed this with Lawk Ghafuri, a London-based political analyst, who specializes in international business and economics.
Sputnik: Boris Johnson has once again criticized Theresa May's Brexit proposal, saying it will leave the UK with nothing. What's your take on his opinion? Is he accurate, do you agree with him?
Lawk Ghafuri: May's plan for Brexit; it's absolutely, let's say, weak, because the European Union is planning to make the UK leave the European Union in a way that is kind of punishing the UK, because the UK is trying to make the same deal before Brexit, but that's not possible, because that's going to make a lot of tension and conflict within the European Union. Because a lot of third countries will ask for the same deal and the same incentives and that, absolutely, is not going to be okay with the European Union, and Mr. Boris Johnson's comments are on the same level. May's plan is absolutely, really weak and she needs to do some customization to her plan because the UK needs to make some concessions for the European Union.
Sputnik: The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said he strongly opposed keeping Theresa May's proposals for a future trade deal; how likely is it then that a trade agreement between London and Brussels will be reached by the set deadline? It looks increasingly like a 'no deal' is going to happen; what's your view?
Lawk Ghafuri: That's absolutely on point, because the deadline is in October but Michel Barnier also stated that they are likely to extend the deadline to the middle of November. That indicates that in the negotiations between the European Union and the UK there are a lot of obstacles in the negotiation process, because May's plan, as I said before, is absolutely weak. The European Union will never accept those points or those conditions because the UK needs to go out of Europe with less harm, but that's not possible.
When you leave the European Union, you need to get some disadvantages out of it and the disadvantages are the frictionless trade. I think if that happens, the UK needs to adopt the rules of the European Union again and that's not possible for the UK because, for the United Kingdom, Brexit is all about the laws being from within the UK, not the European Union.
Sputnik: The interesting thing for many commentators, especially recently, is the thought regarding Theresa May's latest comments that she's not prepared to compromise over her Brexit plan, what is your take, is that a new side to Theresa May in terms of now deciding that enough is enough and she's not going to compromise anything else?
Lawk Ghafuri: What Theresa May is trying to do, is, to be honest, trying to harm the European Union more than the UK, it's like if the plan goes on as Theresa May says that's going to be a disaster for the European Union, because the European Union needs to make the same deals and incentives for other countries, the same as you the UK. For example, if we take Norway, Norway is not a European Union country but at the same time they adopt all the rules of the European Union, that's something the United Kingdom after Brexit is against it or refusing it, so if that happens at the same time European Union cannot have the other conditions European Union is trying to not deal with, because right now, just an example, in the UK more than 60% of the UK manufacturing businesses, which have more than 500 employees, are all owned by the foreign companies, we're talking about business and the economy of the UK is going to be collapsing after Brexit if there's no deal and if there's a deal that leaves the UK to have more taxes in the trade process between the European Union and the UK. If the UK is not going to make some concessions or be flexible more they're going to lose a lot.
Sputnik: How much does Mrs. May's refusal to compromise threaten her position? Do you think she is here to stay until Brexit actually gets finalized or will someone take the helm?
Lawk Ghafuri: Conservative as a party is trying not to get harmed as much as possible through Brexit. You know Boris Johnson, Theresa May, everyone are from the Conservative party and I don't think Theresa May is going to get attacks or disadvantages alone because Conservatives as a party are going to get a lot of negative points, a lot of people are going to complain about the Conservative Party through their Brexit plan, because until now, we also heard about Boris Johnson, he said that there was no plan for the last two months and that's absolutely a disaster because Brexit is a big step for the UK and you need a firm plan for that and right now Theresa May I think she's going to continue and I think she's going to have the discussion and have the negotiation, but I think her plan and her stance right now is really weak and that's going to harm her position and harm her party as well.
The views and opinions expressed by Lawk Ghafuri are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.