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It Would Be Better if UK Had Started Constructive Dialogue With Russia – Prof

© AFP 2023 / Daniel Leal-OlivasPeople hold Union Flags and the EU flag at a kiss chain event organised by pro-Europe 'remain' campaigners seeking to avoid a Brexit in the EU referendum in Parliament Square in front of the Houses of Parliament in central London on June 19, 2016.
People hold Union Flags and the EU flag at a kiss chain event organised by pro-Europe 'remain' campaigners seeking to avoid a Brexit in the EU referendum in Parliament Square in front of the Houses of Parliament in central London on June 19, 2016. - Sputnik International
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The UK government is expected to publish so-called technical manuals for a no-deal Brexit scenario. Speaking to Radio Sputnik, Wyn Grant, professor of international politics at Warwick University, shared his views on a no-deal Brexit, UK export growth and British-Russian relations.

Sputnik: The government is set to publish almost a hundred no-deal scenario papers. How huge is the impact of a no-deal outcome and what sectors of UK life could it affect?

Wyn Grant: Well, I think the impact of a no-deal could be very considerable. We've already heard a leaked message from NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, that the implications to national health services could be very serious, both in terms of staffing, but also the availability of medicines. But really there would be very few areas of the economy, or society, which would not be adversely affected by a no-deal Brexit; and that is shown by the sheer quantity of guidance that the government is going to produce later this week.

READ MORE: UK Brexit Secretary Says Agreed With EU's Barnier to Speed Up Negotiations

Sputnik: So what could be done to mitigate the risk of crashing out of the EU? Theresa May herself has talked about stockpiling medicines and foods, which obviously concerns the population. What's the mitigation against that?

Wyn Grant: The best mitigation will be actually to get some sort of agreement with the European Union, but if that does not happen then a whole series of measures will have to be taken. Certainly the food chain is very vulnerable because it operates on a just-in-time basis; there aren't huge stocks in the chain itself, so if there was any disruption of what are substantial imports from the European continent then this would have a very immediate effect, which is why some sort of stockpiling of food might be necessary and individual consumers might view it necessarily to stockpile food in advance of a no-deal Brexit.

READ MORE: Fresh Brexit Referendum Could Spark 'Civil Disobedience' — Shadow Trade Minister

Sputnik: Now Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox is expecting UK exports, which are already a record high, to rise even further. What's brought about the growth, can you highlight some areas for our listeners?

Wyn Grant: Well, I think really one of the main factors has been the relative weakness of the pound against the euro and the dollar, which has made British exports cheaper. I mean that's been one of the main driving factors, but there are other sectors of the UK economy which are relatively competitive internationally. The problem of expanding exports in future is that the trade agreements that we have with the EU would lapse so we would have to negotiate new agreements with third countries, which could not be very straightforward, plus, of course, the fact that our exports to the EU might well be impeded and certainly would be if there was a no-deal Brexit, because there would be tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers.

READ MORE: Theresa May 'Sitting in a Relatively Poisoned Seat' — Lecturer

Sputnik: We've got a European-Asian marketplace of a 198 million people; the UK is looking actively to develop trade deals globally. This is a huge market place to be able to develop a future trade deal. But it looks as if vilification is the order of the day with regard to Russia. What's your take on that?

Wyn Grant: I think that's, unfortunately, the case. I mean it would be much better if we could have some sort of constructive dialogue between the UK and Russia, which would try to resolve some of these issues and some of them are quite difficult issues, but with a genuine effort it might be possible to move closer together and get some of these difficulties out of the way; but I think that [Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs] Jeremy Hunt is very much going to play to an audience in the United States. The new foreign secretary wants to establish his reputation as someone who is relatively tough. So these sorts of considerations are getting in the way of any kind of more harmonious relationship between the United Kingdom and Russia.

The views and opinions expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.  

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