The Saudi military reported Saturday that it had intercepted a ballistic missile in midflight that was fired from Yemen, targeting Riyadh. Saudi Arabia described the incident as an "act of aggression" against the kingdom by Iran who supports the Houthi rebels in the Yemeni conflict.
In an interview with Sputnik, Banafsheh Keynoush, a geopolitical, communications and development consultant and the author of the book "Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?," highlighted three main important points relating to Saudi Arabia’s policy on Iran.
The first factor is the ongoing power struggle within the kingdom with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman "pursuing steps to exercise leadership at all levels." According to Keynoush, there is no reason to suggest that the crown prince "will be any less assertive" in foreign policy, including with regard to containing Iran.
Furthermore, the Yemeni situation may be an exception from Saudi Arabia’s historically reserved projection of power abroad.
"Saudi Arabia feels most vulnerable to tensions in the Arabian Peninsula, and therefore aims to be more assertive in projecting power in Yemen," Keynoush said, although adding that Riyadh understands that it is very difficult to reach peace through military actions in Yemen or elsewhere in the region.
What is also very important with regard to the Yemeni conflict is that it could be used by Saudi Arabia to "test" Iran’s response to Riyadh’s efforts to contain Tehran.
"Saudi Arabia is signaling that Tehran must retract its influence over the Houthis in Yemen; otherwise, the Kingdom reserves the right to respond to Iran's actions. Unless measures are taken to de-escalate the current tensions caused by the missile attack from Yemen into Saudi Arabia, a new wave of aggressive diplomacy if not military aggression may be underway. So far, both Riyadh and Tehran remain measured in their response to the missile attack," the analyst said.
Keynoush, however, pointed out that there are signs that diplomacy will prevail in the current situation and "outright aggression" can be prevented.
"Ultimately, the response Saudi Arabia gives to this new missile attack on Riyadh will be as relevant as it will be proportional to the actual threat. If the response extends beyond proportionality, then it can be concluded that Saudi Arabia has reached a point where it believes further action over Yemen and within the region is warranted to respond to the Iranian challenge," she explained.
The analyst added that Riyadh’s goal is to signal to Tehran that it must roll back its influence in Yemen and the rest of the region or the kingdom will consider other options, some of which could be diplomatic while other may not be.
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Commenting on the possibility of an open confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Keynoush pointed to the fact that such a scenario was undesirable for either because "it was considered to be a war that both feared they could not win and would have much to lose in the process," but what is different now is visible changes in the power balance between Riyadh and Tehran. According to the analyst, power needs to be redistributed in order to avoid a conflict.
"If power is irreparably imbalanced, then war may be perceived as a solution that could enable Saudi Arabia and Iran to start all over again, or not depending on the outcome of war," she told Sputnik.
Asked whether the recent missile incident would further escalate the Yemeni war, Keynoush said that the conflict will stay stagnant and Saudi Arabia should seek options with the Houthis, "with or without Iran in the picture," and continue to cooperate with the international community to resolve the crisis.