Trump Paris Climate Deal Exit Inconclusive, May Be Reversed by Next US President

© REUTERS / Joshua RobertsU.S. President Donald Trump enters the Rose Garden from the White House colonnade to announce his decision to leave the Paris Climate Agreement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., JJune 1, 2017
U.S. President Donald Trump enters the Rose Garden from the White House colonnade to announce his decision to leave the Paris Climate Agreement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., JJune 1, 2017 - Sputnik International
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US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate deal is an inconclusive move which could see the United States return into the fold after the next presidential election, experts told Sputnik on Friday.

A woman walks past a map showing the elevation of the sea in the last 22 years during the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget, near Paris, France, December 11, 2015 - Sputnik International
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MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Trump said in a press conference on Thursday that the United States would no longer be part of the Paris deal because it hurts the US economy while unfairly benefiting other nations. In accordance with the deal's Article 28, the earliest possible effective withdrawal date for the country cannot be earlier than 4 November 2020.

"Because of the inertia necessary for legally withdrawing from the COP-21 agreement, it may take up to 4 years before the US is actually out of the agreement. In the meantime, this will be election time for the US presidency, with a possibly more environmentally-friendly president who would come into power and reverse Trump’s decision," Martin Beniston, the director of the Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE) at the University of Geneva told Sputnik.

Trump's announcement, which was a fulfilment of a key campaign pledge, drew disappointment from his European allies, political rivals, and the scientific community.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed regret about his decision in phone talks with Trump and confirmed Germany's commitment to the Paris accord, while Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and French President Emmanuel Macron issued a joint statement to express regret over the move.

According to scientific research published in the wake of the US leader's decision, the Earth may be affected by more dangerous levels of warming sooner after Trump’s decision due to the fact that the United States is the world's second largest emitter of greenhouse gases contributing to rising temperatures and extreme weather.

Cary Coglianese, an expert on regulatory policy and the editor of the book "Does Regulation Kill Jobs?" agreed that withdrawing from the Paris agreement was largely a symbolic gesture. However, in his interview with Sputnik the expert said that while this move would not help deliver the economic benefits that the administration claimed it would bring, it would look like bold action.

"For the White House facing many challenges, bold-looking action where the president doesn't need Congress must have its appeal," he stated.

According Coglianese, pulling out of the Paris agreement can help Trump to divert attention from the administration’s difficulties such as delivering on tax reform, health care legislation and immigration policy.

"It offers the president’s supporters something visible — even while it risks undermining benefits from international cooperation and imposing significant long-term costs on all of America," he explained.

CONSEQUENCES FOR US JOB MARKET

Trump had his reasons for pulling out of the agreement saying that this accord is "unfair" and would "effectively decapitate" the American coal industry and cost millions of US jobs.

President Donald Trump waves as he steps out of Air Force One during his arrival at JFK International airport in New York, Thursday, May 4, 2017 - Sputnik International
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Trump said the average US household income would drop about $7,000 if the agreement was implemented, and the climate fund would cost the country 2.7 million jobs by 2025. "The cost to the economy at this time would be close to $3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs," he said.

Martin Beniston believes that the US leader’s decision may, on the contrary, lead to more job losses, because the "green economy" and investments in renewable energy technologies are creating much more opportunities and jobs than the coal industry.

According to the expert, the US coal sector will not benefit much from Trump’s move as it was mostly going bankrupt already many years ago, independently of the climate issues.

"Investments in coal and the re-opening of outdated coal-fired electricity-power stations with outdated technologies will not be economically-viable, and private-industry is unlikely to invest in such technologies any more. It is as if we were to go back to oil lamps like in the 19th century when we are now in the age of LEDs and low-energy light-bulbs," he stressed.

Cary Coglianese agreed that backing out of the Paris agreement is unlikely to bring back jobs lost over the years in the coal industry as those jobs have declined for years due to changes in technology and due to market competition from natural gas, a less carbon-intensive source of energy.

WILL US WITHDRAWAL TRIGGER DOMINO EFFECT?

Although the Paris accord was lauded and supported by many countries, Martin Beniston expressed concern that it could trigger a domino effect among states that had previously voiced their concerns with the existing agreement.

In this photo taken April 21, 2017, President Donald Trump looks out an Oval Office window at the White House in Washington following an interview with The Associated Press - Sputnik International
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"It is firstly a very negative political message that is being sent to the rest of the World, with the risk that it could trigger a "domino-effect", with countries that were not very keen on signing the Paris Accord in 2015 that might decide to also pull out of the climate agreement," he said.

Both experts agreed, however, that the United States could experience the real cost of climate change as it is already imposing economic harm.

"The costs to worry about are those from not addressing climate change: more severe hurricanes and flooding, reduced agricultural yields, increased diseases, and other negative impacts on Americans’ way of life," Coglianese said.

Beniston, in turn, pointed that Trump’s decision meant the United States was giving up its leadership surrendering its spot as a world leader on science and technology to other countries like China or the European Union, which would isolate the country in many respects.

On Thursday, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying reaffirmed at a press briefing that China highly appreciates the Paris agreement on combating climate change and will continue to participate in the deal regardless of other countries’ positions on the issue.

The Paris climate agreement within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, championed by former US President Barack Obama, was signed in 2015 by 194 countries and has been ratified by 143 signatories. It aims to hold the increase in average global temperature to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with all the signatory states agreeing to reduce or limit their greenhouse gas emissions.

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