Political Situation in Ukraine Obstacle to Minsk Measures' Implementation

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Ukrainians walking past candles in the shape of the national emblem of Ukraine on Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine - Sputnik International
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Experts say that the current political environment in Ukraine and president Poroshenko’s ability to “deliver” on the promised constitutional reforms is a major obstacle for the implementation of the measures set out in Minsk to restore peace in the country.

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MOSCOW (Sputnik), Daria Chernyshova, Alexander Mosesov — The current political environment in Ukraine is a major obstacle for the implementation of the measures set out in Minsk to restore peace in the country, experts told Sputnik on Wednesday.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande met in the Belarusian capital of Minsk on Wednesday to agree on a package of measures to end the eastern Ukrainian conflict.

The experts find the implementation of the Minsk measures, which include an unconditional ceasefire, constitutional reform by Kiev with a focus on Ukraine's decentralization and withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, equipment and mercenaries from eastern Ukraine, to be difficult to accomplish.

The Ill Environment

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"A complex agreement such as this one, where the Devil is in the detail, simply cannot be implemented, never mind policed, in this environment," Vlad Sobell, a professor at New York University's Prague campus told Sputnik.

Nicolai Petro, a professor of international politics at the University of Rhode Island, said that "there is the broader question of [Ukraine's] president Poroshenko’s ability to “deliver” on the promised constitutional reforms, which involve decentralization and special status for these regions."

The expert continued saying that "there is intense political in-fighting within the current parliamentary coalition and, at this point, it is hard to imagine a majority in the [Ukrainian parliament] Rada even agreeing to designate which territories fall within the Law of Special Status, and therefore where local elections under Ukrainian law ought to be held."

A law granting "special status" and broader autonomy to parts of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk was introduced last fall but was abolished shortly afterward.

Buffer Force and Pressure

"The notion that the policing will be supervised by the OSCE, a toothless talking shop whose record to date suggests that it is in any case controlled by the West, is laughable," Vlad Sobell told the news agency.

At the same time, Nicolai Petro said that he was "quite surprised that some sort of external peacekeeping forces were not a part of this agreement."

Petro also added that "the key to success lies in placing a peacekeeping buffer force on the ground between the two armies."

The expert said that much depends on "the willingness of the members of the Trilateral Contact Group to put direct pressure their respective constituencies [the EU and United States on Kiev; Russia on Donbas) to abide by the political and economic portions of this agreement."

"The Minsk-2 deal [second since the Minsk-1 talks held in September 2014] certainly is a good turn, something that can conceivably be built upon, assuming the desire to do just that by all parties concerned," Sobell said.

The results of the talks in Minsk were hailed by many world leaders, though they all agree that the Thursday deal is yet just a step toward the peaceful settlement, which still requires further efforts both by the warring sides and the mediators.

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