11:16 GMT +314 December 2019
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    Egypt rejoins the Arab world

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    Although the problems in Egypt have not yet been settled, Arab analysts say that these events have had a decisive influence on the region.

    Although the problems in Egypt have not yet been settled, Arab analysts say that these events have had a decisive influence on the region.

    "It can be said that a new era has begun in the region. The events in Egypt have divided its history into 'before' and 'after.' 'Before' was the Hosni Mubarak regime that was an instrument of U.S. and Israeli policies," said Mohammed Kheir Al Wadi, director of the Syrian China & Asia Research Center (CAC).

    The Mubarak era is over, Al Wadi said. "The events in Egypt could be described as a hurricane against which no one can stand," he said, and the situation in Egypt shows clearly that Mubarak's regime "is no longer viable," no matter what it does to survive.

    And no matter what regime replaces Mubarak, it will not be "a tool of the United States or Israel," Al Wadi said.

    "Under Mubarak, the Egyptian regime acted against the Arab resistance forces, hindered Arab unity and Palestinian reconciliation, took part in boycotting Gaza, and was anti-Iranian and anti-Syrian," he said. "In a word, it was an anti-Arab conspirator."

    Mubarak destroyed Egypt's leading role in the Arab world, he said. "As a result, small Gulf countries are now playing a bigger role than Egypt."

    But "Egypt is shaking off the shackles Mubarak had placed on it." The largest Arab country is returning to the bosom of the Arab world.

    "Egypt is regaining its main, commanding role, but not as a tool of the United States and Israel, but the role it had played when it maintained a patriotic stance common to all Arabs," he said.

    Losers: The United States and Israel

    It is not surprising that these two countries are especially worried about the events in Egypt, which played an extremely important role in U.S. Middle Eastern policy, Al Wadi said.

    "Egypt was the United States' most powerful political, military, economic and ideological base in the region," Al Wadi said. "Washington used that influential Arab Muslim country to implement its policy in the Arab and Muslim regions. In this sense, Cairo was even more important to the United States than Israel." Nobody can take Mubarak's place in U.S. policy, he said. Mubarak's departure will "greatly weaken U.S. influence in the Middle East."

    Changes in Egypt will also influence the policy of Israel, for whom Mubarak was the main ally and supporter in the region. Israel will now be unable to operate as freely as before.

    "It is apparent that Cairo will no longer protect Israel," the analyst said, adding that Israel will have to review its policy regarding the peace process, its settlements in Palestine, and the Palestinian people.

    "If the current right-wing rulers in Israel carry on their aggressive policies, this will be seen as a challenge to the Egyptian people and will affect future Israeli-Egyptian relations," Al Wadi said.

    At the same time, the two countries are unlikely to sever the relations they established in 1979, at least not immediately.

    Iran gets the prize

    Iran will be among the first in the region to benefit from the events in Egypt, Al Wadi said.

    "Mubarak had been Iran's main political opponent in the Arab world for 25 years," he said. "Acting jointly with Israel, he exaggerated the dangers of Iranian expansion for Arab countries."

    Current events in the region will, in general, benefit Iran, Al Wadi said.

    "In 2003, the United States liquidated its main enemy, Saddam Hussein, and later weakened another opponent, the Taliban, but it is now losing its position in the Middle East," he said.

    The changes in Egypt will have a destructive effect on the blockade of Gaza and the isolation of Hamas, and a positive effect on the events in Palestine, in particular by promoting Palestinian reconciliation, Al Wadi said. In his opinion, the events in Egypt will bolster the confidence of political forces in Iraq, especially the anti-American ones.

    Rulers fear their people

    One of the main results of Egyptian events for the Arab countries is that their "people no longer fear their rulers," analysts say.

    "In the past, it was believed in every Arab country that the people feared their rulers. But now it is the rulers who must fear their people. This is a significant change in Arab political thinking and Arab history," said Aziz Jaber from the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies.

    Mohammed Kheir Al Wadi adds that the situation has been complicated for Arab rulers by the fact that "they don't know where the blow will come from."

    "The authorities in Egypt have controlled all the opposition forces and political parties for 30 years. What has this led to? A social outbreak the scale of which no one expected," he said. "What forces will stand behind the next outbreak? In Egypt, it was young people - students and the unemployed, but who will be behind similar protests in Algeria, Yemen or Libya?"

    Young people are currently determining the course of events in Egypt. As for the Muslim Brotherhood, which many think will come to power if democratic elections are held in Egypt, that movement "certainly enjoys respect in society but is unlikely to become the dominant factor," Al Wadi said.

    "Israel is trying to scare the world by saying that Islamic radicals will come to power, but it was not the Muslim Brotherhood that led the revolt in Egypt. It took part in it alongside many other forces, possibly because they believe that democracy is better for them than absolute power," the Syrian analyst said.

    The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

     

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