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IEA Upgrades Russia's 2023 Output Decline Forecast to 740,000 Bpd From 1.1Mln Bpd, IAE Reports

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MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its fresh report on Wednesday that it was surprised by the steady production of crude oil and condensates in Russia, and improved its forecast for 2023, expecting a decrease of only 740,000 barrels per day instead of the previously predicted 1.1 million barrels per day.
"Russian oil supply has held up surprisingly well following its invasion of Ukraine as measures have been put in place to facilitate the re-routing of crude oil exports to new markets. These robust shipments are supporting our 300 kb/d upward revision of Russian output for this year. We now expect average oil production of 10.4 mb/d in 2023, down 740 kb/d y-o-y," the report said.
Russia's crude oil production rose by 130,000 barrels per day in February, the report said.
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"Russian crude production rose by 130 kb/d in February to 9.91 mb/d as the country appears to have found additional outlets for its barrels despite EU sanctions. Total output of crude oil, condensates and NGLs increased to 11.37 mb/d - just 30 kb/d lower than before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022," according to the report.
OPEC+ countries that have obligations under the agreement on limiting oil production increased output by 160,000 barrels per day in February, reducing the gap from the quotas to 1.7 million barrels per day from 1.9 million barrels per day, IAE added.
"Production from the 19 members subject to quotas increased by 160 kb/d to 38.38 mb/d in February – narrowing the gap between the bloc’s supply and official targets to 1.7 mb/d versus 1.9 mb/d in January. Russia, because of sanctions, pumped 570 kb/d below quota, while Nigeria, Angola and Malaysia are trailing due to operational issues," the report read.
Crude oil production in all 23 OPEC+ countries increased by 180,000 barrels per day in February, according to the IEA.
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"OPEC+ crude oil production from all 23 countries rose 180 kb/d to 44.53 mb/d in February, with Russia, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria driving the increase. Output in Kazakhstan, Angola and Iraq declined due to maintenance and unplanned outages," the report said.
Also the International Energy Agency has upgraded its forecast for the global oil production growth in 2023 and now expects an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day to 101.6 million barrels per day.
"For the year as a whole, we expect world oil production to grow by 1.6 mb/d, with the US and Brazil dominating growth," the report read, adding that global oil production is expected to stand at 101.6 million barrels per day in 2023.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has kept its forecast for the global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged, expecting the record 102 million barrels per day this year.
"Following an 80 kb/d contraction in 4Q22, world oil demand growth is set to accelerate sharply over the course of 2023, from 710 kb/d in 1Q23 to 2.6 mb/d in 4Q23. Average annual growth is forecast to ease from 2.3 mb/d in 2022 to 2 mb/d, and global oil demand to reach a record 102 mb/d. Rebounding air traffic and the release of pent-up Chinese demand dominate the recovery," the report read.
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