Is Ex-President Out of Luck? Not So Fast: What US Polls Say About Trump, DeSantis' 2024 Bid

A number of conflicting surveys have emerged, with some concluding that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would beat Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination by landslide numbers, while others say the former president leads his competitor by two-digit points.

A new Marquette University Law School national survey released on January 26 indicated that some 64% of Republicans favor Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a potential GOP nominee for the Oval Office over former President Donald Trump, who announced his 2024 bid in mid-November 2022.

Earlier this month, a WPA Intelligence poll found that US President Joe Biden would handily beat Trump if the 2024 election were held tomorrow. However, Biden would lose to DeSantis, according to the same survey.

Some observers argue that the trend is shaping up after the 2022 midterms, which saw a "failed" red wave as well as the defeat of some prominent GOP figures endorsed by Trump. For his part, DeSantis easily came out on top in his state, beating his competitor Charlie Crist 57-42 in what was called the widest margin in a Florida gubernatorial race since Jeb Bush.

So, does this mean Donald Trump has run out of luck? Not so fast, other observers say.

A Morning Consult poll carried out on January 13-15 showed Trump leading DeSantis by 17 points (48% to 31%) in a theoretical Republican primary, while a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted the following week indicated that the former president would beat DeSantis by 20 points. The same pollster also found that both Trump and DeSantis would have outperformed incumbent President Joe Biden if the election was held today.

Moreover, an Emerson survey published on January 24 expanded Trump's lead over DeSantis to 26 points (55% to 29%) in a hypothetical Republican primary. It is not clear whether DeSantis will toss his hat into the ring for the 2024 race. Meanwhile, conservative pundits insist that Trump "can't be ruled out in 2024."

Since the 2020 presidential election, Trump has been subjected to a great deal of pressure: he was impeached by the House and banned from major social media networks in the wake of the January 6, 2021 protests in Washington, DC; New York Attorney General Letitia James kicked off probes into Trump's family business (James' $250 million lawsuit could effectively cripple the Trump Organization’s ability to do business in New York); while US Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to look into the former president's alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results as well as his mishandling of classified documents.

In addition, Trump came under heavy criticism from Republicans who tried to blame him for the failure of what they expected to become a giant "red wave" in November 2022, with a number of top GOP donors turning their backs on the former president.

At the same time, however, Trump is still demonstrating resilience. He announced his bid in November despite GOP criticism, and he is continuing to hold rallies. His social media accounts has been restored on Twitter, and is due to be reinstated on Facebook* and Instagram*.

When it comes to the conflicting polls, US observers have grown skeptical about national surveys over the several past years. First, polls overestimated Hillary Clinton's 2016 bid; then predicted a blue wave in 2018 that did not materialize, and sent mixed signals about the 2020 and 2022 elections.

Time will tell whether Trump, DeSantis, or someone else will become the GOP's nominee in 2024; likewise, some US observers say they cannot be 100% sure that Joe Biden will cross swords with his Republican contenders next year.

*Facebook and Instagram are banned in Russia over extremist activities.