Sweden May Become 'Frontier State' Because of NATO Bid, Former Ambassador Warns

Sweden’s NATO bid at present depends on Turkey’s approval and has been stalled by Stockholm’s reluctance to accede to all Ankara’s demands and a spate of controversies that damaged relations between the two countries including President Recep Erdogan being hanged in effigy and the Quran being burned near the Turkish embassy.

Sweden's former ambassador to Russia Sven Hirdman has said his country’s contested NATO bid is hasty and he warned that Sweden will become a “frontier state” should war break out between the alliance and Russia.

Sweden filed a joint NATO bid with Finland in May 2022 - a step Hirdman labeled as premature - because it felt that the security situation had shifted after Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine.

"There were parliamentary elections that year, and an advisory referendum on the issue should have been held then. But they didn't do that. Instead, the Social Democrats were afraid of coming under fire from the center-right parties for not having applied already in the election campaign," Hirdman told Swedish media.

Hirdman also claimed that Russia was prepared to conclude a peace settlement early in the conflict, but this was deliberately prevented by the US and the UK, which resulted in Britain's then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson persuading Kiev against this move.

"He went there and said: 'Don't make a peace settlement with the Russians, and we will give you weapons and money and so on.' So nothing came of it," Hirdman said.

He also suggested that from the US perspective a protracted and bloody conflict in Ukraine was "not strange", as many Americans saw Russia as "the only major and potentially aggressive enemy". Trying to exhaust Moscow with a heavy conflict seemed a logical move for the US, he added. However, as far as Stockholm's interests are concerned, a broad conflict in Europe may turn it into a "frontier state against Russia".

Sven Hirdman has been state secretary to two Swedish defense ministers and head of the National Swedish Materiel Inspectorate. For a decade, between 1994 and 2004, he served as Sweden's ambassador to Moscow.

Sweden’s NATO bid at present depends on Turkey, which is the only alliance member to have opposed the move. Although hailed by NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg as "the fastest in history", Sweden's potential accession to the bloc has been stalled by Stockholm’s reluctance to grant all Ankara’s demands, which include a crackdown on Kurdish groups it regards as terrorist organizations. The already tense bilateral relations have been marred by a spate of extra controversies, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan being hanged in effigy in Stockholm during a pro-Kurdish demonstration, a cartoon contest mocking Erdogan, harsh insults by Swedish government allies, and a copy of the Quran being burned in front of the Turkish embassy by right-wing politician Rasmus Paludan.

Turkey strenuously condemned these acts. In particular, Ankara called the Quran-burning a "vile attack" on the holy book and "another example of the alarming level to which Islamophobia and racist and discriminatory movements have risen in Europe". It was also condemned by several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Although Swedish Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, tried to mend fences by calling the Quran burning a "disrespectful act" and expressing "sympathy for all Muslims", the self-inflicted damage may further postpone Sweden’s bid to join NATO.