What if the GOP Takes It All? What Republican Congress Will Mean For World, America

On November 8, US voters are casting their ballots in the midterm elections that will determine which party controls the House and Senate for the next two years. How will US politics change if the GOP wins both chambers?

Pollsters and bipartisan observers suggest that the Republicans have a good chance of flipping the House; some of them even go so far as to suggest that the GOP may gain a 53-to-47 majority in the upper chamber.

Let's imagine that the counting is finished – according to White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, the process will take "a few days" – and it turns out that the GOP has won it all in the US Congress.

The GOP-controlled Congress matched with the Democratic-controlled White House will not be able to solve any of the pressing issues plaguing the US, observers warn. Indeed, the two major parties have grown extremely polarized over the years and maintain opposite views on a vast array of issues, starting with abortion and ending with election laws. While the Republicans will not be able to pursue many of their landmark policies, which could easily be vetoed by Democratic President Joe Biden, they will nonetheless be able to hit the pause button on the Dems' foreign and domestic initiatives.

Foreign Policy: Ukraine, China & Iran

One of the Dems' most urgent foreign policy objectives is to funnel more money into Ukraine in order to proceed with their proxy war of attrition against Russia. On October 18, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that Republicans would not write a "blank check" for Kiev if they win back the House majority, given the inflation and recession burden. Even though that same month Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stated that "the Biden Administration and our allies need to do more to supply the tools of Ukraine," there is the possibility that a number of "anti-aid" Republicans pack both chambers of the US Congress in the aftermath of the elections. In particular, the US mainstream press surmised that if Republican Senate candidates Blake Masters, J.D. Vance, and Don Bolduc join the upper chamber, the number of senators skeptical of aid to Ukraine will increase.

Furthermore, some observers are suggesting congressional progressives could take a tougher "anti-war" stance should the GOP throw further military aid to Ukraine into doubt. Earlier, 30 House Democratic progressives sent a letter to Joe Biden urging him to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia. Very soon, however, they backpedalled on their initiative, apparently succumbing to the pressure from their Democratic fellows. Still, the US press acknowledged that despite withdrawing the letter, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal did not disavow the substance of the document or the call for engaging in diplomacy.

However, when it comes to China and Iran, it's most likely that a GOP-controlled Congress would exert additional pressure on Biden to crack down on Beijing and Tehran, despite Dems' record of getting along with the Chinese and striking a historic nuclear deal with Iran.

In May 2020, House Leader Kevin McCarthy formed the China Task Force "to help reinforce Congressional efforts to counter current and emerging cross-jurisdictional threats from China." McCarthy complained at the time that the initiative was meant to be bipartisan, but Democratic peers had not joined it. It's likely that the US will continue to hinder China's technological development by cutting access to semiconductor know-how, artificial intelligence, and supercomputing. However, it appears that China has already made big progress in these fields. Likewise, the US military buildup in the Asia Pacific, freedom of navigation operations, and provocations pertaining to Taiwan's status will continue.

It is also likely that a GOP-controlled Congress would try to nix Biden's attempts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The process of the restoration of the deal was recently put on pause by the Biden administration and it's probable that the deal won't materialize until January 2023. A GOP congressional majority would probably not ratify the nuclear accords if requested to do so.

Domestic Issues: Potential Stalemate

Meanwhile, US domestic policies may end up in limbo until the 2024 presidential and congressional elections at the earliest, according to some observers. Previously, the GOP opposed most of the US president's initiatives, prompting the Dems to instrumentalize the "reconciliation mechanism" to avoid the filibuster in the evenly-split upper chamber. If the GOP takes the Senate, reconciliation won't help. Still, there is a hope that this situation would force Biden to review his political agenda and opt for more moderate policies – something that his Democratic Party fellows have urged him to do prior to the elections.

On top of this, it is highly probable that a GOP-controlled Congress would try to impeach Joe Biden and launch a series of investigations into his family, particularly his son Hunter, the latter's apparent influence-peddling schemes, and murky overseas deals. Republicans will also likely investigate the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic under Biden, as well as the politicization of the Justice Department and the FBI.

Meanwhile, potential impeachment proceedings are likely to take time. Furthermore, if Biden is impeached, the US will end up with Kamala Harris as president. According to some observers, a Harris presidency would be "short term pain for long term gain" for the GOP, as her perceived incompetence could pave the way to a Republican presidential win in 2024. Will the hypothetical partisan struggle be helpful for taming galloping inflation and the unfolding recession? Time will tell.