Battle to Control US Congress Heats Up With Two Weeks Until Midterm Elections

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - Democrats are at risk of losing their legislative majority in Congress as Republicans challenge for control of both the House and Senate in midterm elections two weeks from today on November 8, although the upper chamber fight could come down to the wire.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested alongside 35 Senate seats to determine which party will lead the legislative process through the second half of US President Joe Biden’s term.

The elections come amid issues such as historic inflation, the conflict in Ukraine and the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to return abortion regulation to states – all of which are expected to play a role in the outcome of the midterms.

Senate

The Senate is currently composed of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents, with the Democrats maintaining a legislative majority due to alignment with the Independents and Vice President Kamala Harris holding a tiebreaker vote as President of the Senate.

The majority of Senate seats contested during the upcoming midterms, 21 of 35, are held by Republicans. Democrats hold the remaining 14 seats up for grabs. With margins already close between the two parties in the Senate, several key races could solidify Democrats’ hold or swing power to Republicans.

There are about nine senate races that are particularly close, seven of which are in states often considered “battleground” or “swing” states during national presidential races.

The seven battleground states with tight senate races include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Senate races are also close in Utah and New Hampshire.

Each race is equally important in terms of determining who controls the Senate, but battleground state results may come under more scrutiny because they could indicate where the state might lean in the 2024 presidential race.

As of Monday, RealClearPolitics projects Republicans to win three seats in the upper chamber. Politico characterizes the Senate as a toss-up.

House

With every seat in the House of Representatives up for grabs, the power balance could shift more radically than in the Senate as Republicans seek to regain control of the lower chamber and implement a new legislative agenda.

Democrats currently hold a majority of 220 to 212, with three vacant seats. A total of 218 seats is needed to obtain a majority in the House. Ballotpedia lists 37 of the races as close.

FiveThirtyEight’s House election model, which simulates the election 40,000 times, predicted Republicans win the chamber 81 times out of 100. Politico likewise forecasts the House as a “likely Republican” victory.

Key Issues

Issues such as the economy, abortion and Ukraine aid are guiding how Americans cast their ballots in the 2022 midterms, in contrast to the 2018 midterms, during which former US President Donald Trump was top of mind for over half of voters, according to a Morning Consult poll.

The midterm elections will occur amid high inflation in the US, as well as energy market volatility. Over 90% of US voters are concerned about rising inflation and the state of the economy, a Politico/Morning Consult poll found.

Moreover, the US Supreme Court’s decision earlier this year to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision and return regulatory authority of abortions to the states has led Democrats to campaign on federally codifying abortion protections if given a strong majority in the midterms - legislation Biden said he would prioritize with a Democratic Congress.

US House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a favorite to become House Speaker if Republicans win control of the chamber, has pledged that the party will not continue to write Ukraine a “blank check” for assistance given domestic economic concerns.

Worries about the future of funding for Ukraine has prompted lawmakers to work on passing a new $50 billion military aid package before January, according to US media reports. However, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed that a Republican-led Senate would focus on ensuring continued weapon delivery and greater allied assistance to Ukraine.

Like Biden, former US presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama were elected to office with their party controlling both chambers of Congress. Both presidents later lost control of a chamber in their first midterms.

Biden intends to run for a second term in 2024, the president said on Friday. However, there is still time to make a decision on the matter, Biden added. Biden will turn 80 years old on November 20.