Republican Support of Ukraine is Faltering, Could They End US Support?

The total amount of aid sent to Ukraine during 2022 is unclear. It has been estimated to be anywhere between $17 billion and $40 billion. That second figure would make Ukraine the largest recipient of US aid in the 21st century.

Last week, House Republican leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy from California stated that if the Republicans take control of the house, he would not support unlimited aid to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy stated. He later added that he thinks “Ukraine is important.”

The comments come as Republicans took the lead on a generic ballot against Democrats in next month’s midterm elections. Other Republican lawmakers have remained mum on the issue, and Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has been a consistent critic, voting against previous Ukrainian aid packages.

Still, the more traditional elements of the Republican party have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence said that there was no room in the Republican party for Russian “apologists.” Pence was speaking to the notoriously pro-war Heritage Foundation think-tank. Since the US has been sending military aid to Ukraine, arms manufacturers in the US have seen incredible profits. Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and others have outperformed stock market indexes this year.

While general support for Kiev has been strong among members of both parties, there is growing evidence of a divide between Republicans and Democrats. According to a Pew Research poll taken in September, 81% of Democrats back Washington’s support of Kiev while only 66% of Republicans say the same.

That support is also conditional on how much aid is being sent. According to the same poll, 32% of Republicans said the US was sending too much aid to Ukraine, compared to just 16% who say the US has not sent enough. Thirty percent say the US has sent “about” the right amount. In March, only 9% of Republicans said the US was sending too much aid.

For Democrats, only 11% say the US has sent too much and 45% said the US is sending about the right amount. Twenty percent of Democrats say the aid sent by the US is not enough.

Another issue of concern for those pushing aid to Ukraine is how far down the list of priorities the issue is for voters. According to a Quincy Institute poll, also taken in September, only 6% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans said the situation in Ukraine is among the top three issues facing America today. For Republicans, the top three issues were Inflation, the economy, and immigration. Meanwhile, climate change, women’s reproductive rights, and gun violence topped the list for Democrats. Two of the issues Republicans are most concerned about, inflation and the economy, are related to the increased energy and food prices that have partially resulted from US sanctions on Russia.

When asked if they would support the US providing aid to Ukraine at current levels if it were to cause “higher gas prices and a higher cost of goods in the US” only 22% of Republicans said they would support continued aid, while 48% of Democrats said they would (44% said they would not).

With inflation, gas prices, and food costs all continuing to rise, politicians in Washington may find that the previously steadfast support of their aid to Ukraine may begin to slip. Republicans in particular, who may soon find themselves in charge of Congress, could be pressured to spend US taxpayer money elsewhere. That effect may be magnified if the conflict continues into 2023 and 2024. If former President Donald Trump, who is leading virtually every Republican primary poll, becomes the nominee for President, Republicans may feel more comfortable coming out against aid to Ukraine. Trump recently advocated for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.