Barred From Elections: Imran Khan's Popularity Will Only Grow Further, Analyst Says

Just days after securing a victory on six of the seven National Assembly seats contested in the October 16 by-polls, the former prime minister has been disqualified under Article 63(1)(p) of the Constitution. Sputnik got in touch with Hamza Ghaznavi, political analyst and co-founder of a digital media platform, for some clarity.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has barred former prime minister Imran Khan from contesting elections in the country for the time being. The sentence against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief was passed on Friday by a five-member bench of the Election Commission of Pakistan over his alleged failure to properly account for monetary proceeds from the sale of gifts he had received from foreign dignitaries while he was prime minister. The gifts were stored at the state gift repository, Toshakhana.

The verdict also formally removes Khan from the National Assembly seat he had retained in 2018.

The ex-PM challenged the verdict in the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Saturday, a day after the body barred him from holding public office for the time being.

The announcement sent ripples across the legal and political circles of the country, with PTI party members and Khan's supporters flooding the streets to hold massive protests against the verdict.

Khan himself has slammed the ECP following the verdict, describing the poll body as "part of the mafia" and vowing "to fight these thieves as long as I am alive."

In an exclusive interview with Sputnik, Hamza Ghaznavi, a political analyst based in Toronto and co-founder of digital media production agency, ProperGaanda, shared his views on what this means for Pakistan's political landscape and what will happen next.

"The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced its verdict in the Toshakhana reference against PTI chief Imran Khan, disqualifying the former premier under Article 63-1(p) of the Constitution. It was brought forward by Sikander Sultan Raja, the head of ECP. The issue with this ruling is that the length of disqualification cannot be told exactly. The length of disqualification is determined by the High Court and that can include: three years of imprisonment or five years of not being allowed to run in the elections. However, it is most likely that Islamabad's High Court will overturn the decision," Ghaznavi told Sputnik.

The election commission can only disqualify a person if he has been penalized by High Court or Supreme Court.

However, Imran Khan has not been disqualified previously, due to that reason the current situation may be "deemed dubious and in my opinion will likely be overturned," the analyst added.

Talking about Khan's strategy moving forward from this point on, Ghaznavi explained that the former prime minister has called off protests, but is moving towards announcing plans for the long march.

During Saturday's press conference, Khan addressed the nation and said that he would announce the exact date for the long march coming Friday.

"That goes to show that Mr. Khan is not that worried and he has an idea that this ruling will be overturned," the analyst said.

He further explained that while the ECP’s findings in the Toshakhana case may not have been completely unexpected, the PTI seemed to have an idea of what was coming, given how persistently it had been assailing the commission’s perceived partiality.

"When Imran Khan talks about 'higher powers' pointing towards Pindi, he repeatedly says that they were talking against him for quite some time and it is the same people who brought forward the recent ruling against him," Ghaznavi elaborated.

"With Mr Khan likely to challenge this decision before the Islamabad High Court, it would be interesting to see how the court proceeds with this challenge. Will it apply the same legal standard that it applied to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif? Considering that there is a ban on Sharif, can it be possible that the court overturns both the bans?" deliberated the analyst.

As for the Toshakhana case, the analyst thinks it is not a "small case."

The Toshakhana case against Khan started in August after the ruling members of the parliament alleged that the former prime minister had sold 52 gift items from the state gift repository at high prices in the open market. These gifts were received by Khan between 2018 and 2019 from various foreign dignitaries.

"I do believe a leader of an opposition should not be banned, but the case itself of Rs 144 million [around $660,000] is not a small one. The most expensive gift given to Mr Khan was a watch, allegedly worth Rs 87 million [around $399,000] from Mohammad bin Salman. However, only 40 million [$183,180] from the total amount was declared. So obviously it raises some issues: the PTI government came to power on an ethical basis saying that all other parties are corrupt and they take a lot of money, whereas, the PTI party is not like that," Ghaznavi said.

However, it is worth pointing out that the 144 million allegation was made by Shehbaz Sharif, and the same numbers were also quoted by Fact Focus, but it has been denied by Imran Khan who called these allegations ill-founded and baseless.

Ghaznavi further said that Imran Khan in most of his speeches, on multiple occasions, said that he doesn't take anything from the government.

"However, this case points out that his (Khan’s) humbleness is somewhat being questioned now, because for a country like Pakistan, 100 million is a big deal, so this case should be perceived seriously," the analyst added.

When asked if Khan should be banned following the recent accusation against him, Ghaznavi said, "No, I don't think that Khan should be banned. There may be a fine against him and his party, or something along those lines, but not a ban. Also how come it is always against the politicians and prime ministers that such cases are brought forward, and why never against anyone else?" pondered the analyst.

Talking about Khan's current narrative, Ghaznavi told Sputnik that the former premier will continue to press for elections to take place as soon as possible.

"Khan's strategy is to move towards the elections and he has a big chance, because he has a good following. If this case actually came from Pindi then it is a mistake at their end, because it is highly likely that Khan's popularity will further grow. His narrative of how everyone is against him and how he is fighting them, has only further been strengthened," the analyst said.

He also said that it is possible that now Khan will raise a few points against General Bajwa, although it is no denying that more cases might be brought against Khan as well.

"I think in terms of country wide strategy, politicians should sit down together and talk. They need to realize that in order to strengthen democracy in the country, in some situations all politicians must work together," ProperGaanda founder said.

Looking at the future developments, the analyst added that the month of November will be crucial for Pakistan because the new army chief is set to come in.

"Whenever a new army chief comes in, many changes take place within the country. A lot will depend on the new chief. Who will he be? What will his conversation be like? I think that the new chief will try to stay away from politics because armed forces are not as well-loved as they previously were in the country, so some damage control will need to be made," Ghaznavi said.

According to him, whenever a new army chief comes to power in Pakistan, he ultimately becomes involved in the political landscape, so nobody can really predict what the new army chief will do.

"We will just have to wait and see," concluded Ghaznavi.

The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Sputnik.