Early Voting High for Midterms; Increased Turnout Expected

Twenty-seven states and Washington D.C. allow for “no-excuse” absentee voting. Another eight states automatically send mail-in ballots to registered voters. Forty-six states offer some form of early voting.

According to The New York Times, early voting for November’s midterm elections is much higher than in 2018, leading most experts to predict a higher-than-normal turnout.

Just days into some states opening early voting, more than 5.5 million voters have already cast their ballots for this year’s midterm election. As of Saturday, 24 states, plus Guam and the US Virgin Islands have opened up early voting. Two states, Massachusetts and Nevada opened today.

In Georgia, early in-person voting is up 70% compared to the 2018 midterm election. In North Carolina, absentee voting is up 114%, and in Florida, the early vote is up 50% compared to this point in 2018.

Nationally, Democrats make up 51% of the early votes while Republicans make up 30%. That gap has narrowed from the 2020 election when Democrats made up 55% and Republicans made up 26%. That reflects early voting in Florida, where Democrats beat Republicans by 21 points in early voting in 2020, this year they only lead by 3.5 points.

One reason for that may be increased trust among Republicans about mail-in ballots and early voting. In the run-up to the 2020 Presidential election, former President Donald Trump consistently cast doubt on the legitimacy of mail-in voting, leading many Republicans to distrust the system. That led to a flip on which party voted early or through the mail. In 2018, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in early voting in Florida by 7%.

While there has not been extensive polling on how Republicans feel about mail-in voting during this election cycle, not having the leader of the party espouse that the practice is illegitimate regularly could be a reason a higher percentage of mail-in votes are coming from Republicans.

It is also unclear if the increased early voting will portend a corresponding increase in overall turnout. It is safe to say there will be some increased turnout compared to the 2018 midterms but how much early voting can be attributed to higher turnout and how much to shifting habits due to the pandemic is unclear.

“I think we need to get past this potential Black Friday rush of voting that you get at the very beginning when the doors open,” Michael McDonald, a turnout expert at the University of Florida, told The New York Times. “But the fact that you’re even seeing it, that tells you that this isn’t going to be a low-turnout election. It’s just the question is going to be how high of a turnout election we’ll get.”

Mail-in and early voting was already on the rise, even before the pandemic. In 2000, 14% of voters cast their ballots early. By 2016, that number had risen to 40%. The shift was put into overdrive as more states opened up their voting process, before and especially during the pandemic. In 2020, 72% of ballots were cast before election day.

The increase in early voting may indicate surprising enthusiasm by Democratic voters, which would bode well for the party. Typically, voters for the party who sits in the White House are comparatively apathetic during midterm elections. With Democrats outpacing Republican voters in early voting, it may show that issues such as Roe v Wade being overturned by the Supreme Court are motivating Democrats to enter the voting booth. Again, the question remains if early voting forecasts more voting or just changing habits.

At least in the first few elections with extensive no-excuse mail-in voting, studies showed that increased mail-in voting does not result in more Democrats voting than Republicans or give an advantage to Democratic candidates.

Mail-in voting is likely to increase the likelihood of delayed results. Mail-in votes must be opened and inspected before being counted and most states only allow votes to be opened a few days before election day, if at all.

In 2020, multiple states with close elections had their results delayed for days as absentee ballots were counted. The delays were exacerbated by some states allowing mail-in votes to be counted if they arrived after election day but were postmarked before.