Shrinking Circle of Truss: Who Could Replace Crisis-Wracked UK PM?

The economic crisis brought on by sanctions on Russia looks set to bring down PM Liz Truss just months into her government — just as some pundits consider it put paid to her predecessor Boris Johnson. But can the Tory party find a stronger contender, or would its next leader prove even more divisive?

With Liz Truss's premiership on the rocks after just six weeks, who could replace her in yet another Tory leadership contest?

The PM's attempt to scapegoat her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for market chaos prompted by policies she trailed in her summer campaign to succeed Boris Johnson may not be enough to placate her party.

Conservative MPs are reportedly already sharpening the knives and drafting letters to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful back-bench 1922 Committee with the power to open up challenges for the top job.

Third Time Lucky for Hunt?

Jeremy Hunt's dismal showing in the last Conservative leadership race this summer — knocked out in the first round of balloting of Tory MPs — seemed to be the final nail in the coffin of his political career.

The opponent of Brexit came a distant second to Johnson in the 2019 leadership election, prompted by Theresa May's resignation over rising discontent with her 'soft Brexit' approach to talks with Brussels.

Many of the Remainer faction that Hunt tacitly represented then tried to derail the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, with a score of MPs siding with the opposition in a bid to force a re-run of the 2016 referendum. Johnson deftly crushed them and won a landslide victory in the December 2019 general election.

But Hunt's surprise appointment as chancellor on Friday — following Kwarteng's forced resignation — catapulted him back from the political wilderness to the second most-powerful office of state.

If reversing Truss and Kwarteng's tax cuts stabilises the exchange and interest rates along with the opinion polls, that will burnish Hunt's credibility as a future PM. But he risks the stigma of being the chancellor who simultaneously raised taxes — anathema to the Tories — and cut spending on aid to families and businesses during the energy crisis.

Back so Soon-ak?

Former chancellor Rishi Sunak is the obvious outside challenger. Along with Sajid Javid, he led the mass walk-out from cabinet that forced Boris Johnson's resignation in July.

That Brutus-like twist of the knife may have been what cost him the Number 10 spot, with Truss touted as the 'continuity Boris' candidate during her campaign.

But the new PM quickly ditched large parts of Johnson's radical agenda, including selling off the staunchly-liberal Channel 4 TV network that few realised was publicly-owned.

And now that Truss has U-turned on her campaign promise to cancel the tax rises which Sunak imposed — to pay back massive government borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic — there is little clear blue water between them for grass-roots Conservatives.

From Defence to Offence

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace was hotly tipped as potential replacement for Johnson in the summer, but dropped out before the first round of voting to endorse Truss.

Both are leading proponents of confrontation with Russia in Ukraine — the policy that amplified the energy and inflation crises that may prove the new PM's undoing.

Sources close to Wallace told journalists at the weekend that he may quit in protest if Hunt imposes cuts on his department just as it is clearing out the arsenals to arm the Kiev regime.

That could set him up as an opponent to Hunt who could win support from the more-bellicose side of the Conservative party, which includes fellow Europhiles Tom Tugendhat and Tobias Ellwood.

Ladies First

Perhaps ironically, the Conservative Party has a monopoly on female British prime ministers: Margaret Thatcher, May and now Truss.

Third and fourth place in the summer's leadership race went to the unflappable Penny Mordaunt and the energetic young Kemi Badenoch, who emerged as the party members' favourite but failed to make it onto the mass ballot between the top two candidates.

An earlier drop-out from the contest was Suella Braverman, who gained cabinet-level experience as Johnson's attorney general. In September was promoted by Truss to Home Secretary — one of the four 'great offices of state' — making her the second Afro-Asian woman to hold the job after her predecessor Priti Patel.

While the Tories officially deride tokenism and identity politics as a fetish of the opposition Labour Party, they have been keen to beat them in the diversity stakes. Having the first ethnic minority PM — barring New York-born Johnson's Russian-Jewish-Turkish-Muslim heritage — would be a major coup for them.

Cincinnatus Lays Down His Plough

To labour the Roman metaphors a little more, Johnson declared in his farewell speech that he would "return to his plough" like fifth-century BC Roman dictator Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus.

Given that Cincinnatus came out of his rural retirement years later to lead the republic once more, many pundits took that comment as a coded vow by BoJo to re-conquer Downing Street.

But Boris may be keeping his powder dry for a leadership challenge following the next general election — assuming the polls keep pointing to a Tory defeat. It may be better in the long-term to return as leader of the opposition against an unstable coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists than to be the leader who lost to them.

But to be PM, one must first be an MP, and Johnson's current 7,500 majority in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency may not be safe enough. There are rumours that he could succeed Crispin Blunt, who is stepping down at the next election, in the rock-solid Tory seat of Reigate in Surrey.