Can Scottish Nationalist Court Challenge Force Re-Run of Independence Vote?

Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon has jumped from Scottish majority disapproval of Brexit to the current Conservative government's unpopularity amidst the cost-of-living crisis to justify another vote on dividing the UK.

Scotland's devolved administration has begun its Supreme Court challenge to the UK government's refusal to let it re-run the 2014 independence referendum.

Sturgeon seized on the economic crisis as justification for a repeat of the 2014 plebiscite, having previously used Britain's exit from the European Union (EU) as pretext for splitting with the UK.

It will hear arguments from the Scottish government and Scottish National Party (SNP) which rules it.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon claimed at the annual conference of her party on Monday that a repeat vote could be held in October 2023 if the Supreme Court rules in its favour.

Sturgeon seized on the economic for the rampant inflation, caused by sanctions on Russia telling the BBC: "I despise the Tories."

She blamed current PM Liz Truss for the rampant inflation, caused in part by sanctions on Russia, telling the BBC: "I despise the Tories."

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson flatly denied SNP demands for a return match in the vote, which his predecessor David Cameron called a "once-in-a-generation" event.

The main opposition Labour Party, which may need a coalition deal with the SNP to return to power in future, has also ruled out an "IndyRef 2" — which could consolidate Conservative power by removing 59 mostly non-Tory safe seats from the Westminster Parliament.

Is There Popular Support for Independence?

Opinion polling has not shown an overall increase in support for Scotland's independence since 2014. While the "Yes" campaign held a lead in the run-up to the vote, the 10 percent of apparently undecided Scots voted overwhelmingly against breaking up the union.

But nationalists hailed the 45 percent vote for independence as symbolic of the final Jacobite rebellion in 1745, when the Roman-born "Young Pretender" Charles Stuart used a Scottish army in his bid to regain the English throne. Ironically for Sturgeon, the Scottish lords forced "Bonnie Prince Charley" to abandon his march on London after the Tories — English supporters of restoring the Stewart monarchy — failed to rally to his banner.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg confronted Sturgeon on Sunday with polling data which consistently showed that less than a quarter of Scottish residents wanted another referendum in the next 12 months, while around 45 percent do not want to see one for at least five years.

"The SNP won the election on a very clear manifesto commitment"

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says "we don't actually have to look at opinion polls" to know there is a mandate for another Scottish independence referendum#BBCLauraK https://t.co/gbQ1361c6z pic.twitter.com/l7h21lEsYr

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) October 9, 2022

Sturgeon repeated her claim that the SNP's first-place showing in last year's Scottish Assembly elections — which left them relying on a coalition with the Scottish Greens for a legislative majority — amounted to a mandate for independence.

"We don't actually have to look at opinion polls," she insisted. "The SNP won the election on a very clear manifesto commitment."

The nationalist leader also told Kuenssberg that new oil and gas wells in the North Sea — often touted as the basis for Scottish prosperity following independence — were unlikely to meet environmental standards.

Nicola Sturgeon does not rule out supporting new oil and gas licences in the North Sea but says she is “very sceptical” that they will meet environmental tests#BBCLauraK https://t.co/gbQ1361c6z pic.twitter.com/ZMh58vLOiF

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) October 9, 2022

Even supporters of a solo Scotland have questioned Sturgeon's commitment to a new plebiscite after allegations emerged in 2021 that £600,000 in donations from citizens to the SNP's independence fighting fund had instead been spent on campaigning for the May 2019 European Parliament election and the UK general election in December that year.

What Would Independence Look Like?

In its bid to garner support for a separate state, the SNP has made many bold claims and promises.

The nationalists have said the British monarch would remain head of state after independence — which risks alienating the many Scots who support Irish republicanism in an attempt to placate unionists.

It has also insisted the country would continue to use the British pound sterling currency, and would not have a "hard border" with England, where many Scottish firms do business and residents commute to work.

But achieving the SNP's goal of joining the EU would mean adopting the euro instead, while Brussels has insisted on customs checks on goods moving between the British mainland and Northern Ireland as part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, ostensibly for fear of the land border with the Republic of Ireland being used as a "back door" for British imports.

EU membership criteria include strict limits on government debt and spending deficits, which would be hard to achieve while the Holyrood administration continues to provide free prescription drugs and university tuition fees — the policies which arguably won elections for the SNP.

Sturgeon has claimed that the UK would be liable for Scotland's debts and the pensions of state employees. But even if Westminster agrees to that, it would lose the Barnett Formula subsidy for public spending provided at the expense of English taxpayers.

The SNP has also demanded that the British government transfer Scottish-based army regiments, Royal Navy ships, and Royal Air Force aircraft to a newly-formed state, pushing back the need for major arms purchases for years or decades.

The SNP has also used its control of the Scottish Parliament to pass legislation sharply at odds with English and Welsh law.

Examples include a "hate crimes" bill that would allow citizens to be prosecuted for opinions spoken in the privacy of their own homes, and a gender recognition act which would grant men access to women's toilets, changing rooms, and prisons on the sole basis that they self-identify as transsexual.

That has drawn fierce criticism from Scottish women's groups and Harry Potter authoress J.K. Rowling, a resident of Edinburgh.