British National Grid Warns of Power Cuts if Gas Runs Low This Winter

Almost half of the UK's electricity is generated by natural gas-fired power stations. But the fuel, now in short supply due to sanctions on Russia, also powers household central heating and hot water boilers.

Britain's electricity transmission network has warned of power cuts to help conserve gas supplies for winter heating.

The report by the National Grid's Electricity System Operator (ESO) said the measure was "unlikely" to be used, but remained on the cards amid the Europe-wide energy crisis.

Under the "base case" scenario in the ESO's study, the margin between peak electricity demand and supply from power stations and other sources will be sufficient.

But if generation falls short, power may have to be cut for up to three hours at a time to prioritise home heating.

Households and businesses will be asked to help save electricity under the "demand flexibility service", due to be implemented next month. That will see consumers rewarded for using less energy during peak demand hours, which generally fall between 8am and 10pm.

Gas-fired power stations produce as much as 47.7 percent of Britain's electricity, depending on how much can be generated from wind farms and solar installations from day to day.

Natural gas is also the most common fuel for central heating and hot water.

The UK sources about half of its gas needs from undersea deposits in its large maritime exclusive economic zone (EEZ), with most of the remainder coming from North Sea neighbour Norway.

Britain is also home to Europe's largest liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal at Milford Haven in Wales, through which gas from the Middle East and North America can be imported.

But another study by National Grid Gas Transmission, a separate entity from the ESO, warned that increased competition for a reduced supply of gas in Europe could cut off the streams from Norway, the Netherlands and elsewhere.

The energy crisis was prompted by European Union and UK sanctions — which pre-empted the Russian military operation in Ukraine — and the recent sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines across the Baltic Sea.

Energy regulator Ofgem's response to the two National Grid reports was cautiously optimistic.

"We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and we are in a favourable position," said a spokesperson.

But Ofgem warned that the energy sector needed to be "responsible and prudent" to make sure contingency measures were in place.

"We are working with the government, National Grid and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter," the spokesman stressed.

The regulator has lifted its cap on household gas and electricity tariffs twice this year, raising costs to more than double the 2021 level.