Future of Finland Hinges on Immigration, Study Claims

A shrinking population, a growth in elderly groups with special healthcare needs and a drop in the number of taxpayers amid historically low birthrates are all factors necessitating increased labor immigration in Finland, according to the new study. Immigration has already become the key factor driving population growth in many EU countries.

Finland needs a considerable and steady influx of immigrants to keep its population stable, its services going and its municipalities vibrant, a recent population study conducted by the Consultancy for Regional Development (MDI) has concluded.

MDI forecasted that in the coming decades, the number of working age people will dramatically fall, especially in small towns and rural municipalities.

The study painted a bleak picture concerning Finland's dependency ratio, which is the proportion of pensioners in relation to the working-age population. The strong growth in elderly age groups will entail an increased need for services in all healthcare areas. By contrast, in most welfare areas, the size of the working-age population is decreasing and will continue to do so in absence of major changes. In practice, Finland will either have to adapt to a shrinking workforce or attract significantly more immigrants than at present, the study suggested.

It also stressed that this process will coincide with a fall in the number of taxpayers, at a time when more people need health services paid for by tax revenues. The change will be particularly dramatic outside the metropolitan area and other major urban areas. Again, immigration is seen as a measure to rectify the problem.

The study stressed that only immigration managed to increase the working-age population throughout the 2010s and will continue to do so in the future. Without increasing immigration, the population will start to decrease at the national level, it concluded.

Employment Minister Tuula Haatainen agreed with the study and emphasized the government's efforts to promote labor immigration.

“We need foreign labor if we are to survive, so that our services can be safeguarded and businesses can thrive and also expand,” Haatainen told national broadcaster Yle.

According to the employment minister, increased labor immigration is predestined for Finland, which needs to adapt to the new reality.

“In many ways, we as a society need to change and correct our attitudes. We must be able to see these people as coming here, not as people to be exploited, but as people who are part of society,” Haatainen emphasized.

In 2021, it was agreed to double the labor immigration rate. After 2030, the increase would be as much as 10,000 per year, Haatainen confirmed. To match the trend and promote immigration, the government has taken measures to alleviate bureaucratic barriers and speed up the application process.

Finland's birth rate has been steadily declining since the 1950s, nosediving over the past decade alone. The total fertility rate fell from 1.87 children per woman in 2010 to an all-time low of 1.35 children per woman in 2019. During the first half of 2022, the Nordic country saw its lowest number of births on record, overshadowing a historic period of famine 150 years ago.

Meanwhile, this tendency is mirrored in much of the EU and the West in general. In 2020, the total fertility rate across the EU was merely 1.5 births per woman, which is a far cry from the level of natural population reproduction, let alone growth. In recent years, immigration has become the main driving factor behind population growth in many EU countries. In neighboring Sweden, immigrants and their descendants make up between a quarter and a third of the population, depending on the age group. In Finland, a nation of 5.5 million, the share of immigrants was estimated at 8.5 percent in 2021.