Tory Divisions, Cost-of-Living Crisis & Winter Will Put UK PM Truss and Her Team to Test

Boris Johnson's former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will take the reins of the UK government after she won the premiership on Monday. What does the future have in store for the new British premier?

Liz Truss came out on top in the Conservative Party leadership election and will become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on September 6, after outgoing PM Boris Johnson officially submits his resignation to the Queen. The ceremony is due to take place at the Queen's Balmoral estate in Scotland, where the monarch is vacationing.

"The first thing to note about the result is that it was a lot closer than anticipated," said Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at Leicester's De Montfort University. "There [were] some forecasts saying that she would win between two thirds and three quarters of the vote. As it is, Liz Truss won 57% of the vote ̶ but that's 50% of the turnout. It is closer to 47% of those eligible to vote [Tory party members]. So we actually see a situation where not only is the Conservative Party very clearly divided on this issue of who should be the leader, but there's going to be huge problems in trying to bring the different parts of the party back together."

Jones recalled that when the result was announced and Truss went up on stage, she did not shake hands with her contender, Rishi Sunak, to acknowledge him first.

"This was something that Boris Johnson did when he won the leadership election [in 2019], when he defeated Jeremy Hunt," the professor pointed out. "The first thing you do is congratulate and thank the opponent. Truss failed to do this."

For his part, Sunak urged his supporters to unite behind Truss, "as she steers the country through difficult times,” while emphasizing that the conservatives are one family in his Monday tweet.

Truss, who was not the most popular alternative to BoJo among Tory lawmakers, has a huge challenge to unify the party, Jones noted, adding that "if she fails to do this she will not win the next general election in 2024."

If the newly elected prime minister wants to unify the Conservative Party, she needs to give some offices to Sunak's senior supporters "just to make sure that they're inside the big tent," according to the academic. However, speculation suggests that she has already promised many senior posts to her own team, Jones noted. When it comes to Sunak, it is expected that he will not be in the future cabinet and will return to the backbenches, potentially solidifying the brewing party division, according to the professor.

Does Truss Have Solution to the Cost-of-Living Crisis?

The first thing on Truss' agenda will be the cost-of-living crisis and energy prices, Jones highlighted.

"During the campaign, she said that she was not going to give more hand-outs to people, unlike Sunak, who was willing to pledge such a commitment. Instead, Truss is going to focus upon tax cuts," he said.

Still, tax cuts are no remedy to the unfolding British crisis, the academic remarked, citing the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The right-wing organization has made it clear that tax cuts will actually be bad for the economy.

The academic continued that in her Sunday interview, Truss admitted that tax cuts would help the less well-off to a lesser degree than the better-off. She argued, however, that that was fine because the better-off were paying more taxes.

"The problem is, in terms of the cost of living crisis, it is the least well-off in society who are being hurt the most," Jones underscored. "Her plans help them the least. So if she does not get to grips with the cost of living crisis and energy prices, the knock-on effect of that is going to be a winter of discontent within the UK and potentially a leadership challenge against her after the May local elections in 2023."

Meanwhile, the Tories are currently behind Labour in the polls and have a lot to do to try to narrow that gap, according to the professor. "From soundings being taken within the Conservative Party, they are not optimistic that Truss can do [that]," he said.

UK Foreign Policy: Will Truss Go Nuclear?

When it comes to foreign policy and the Ukraine crisis, Truss is likely to follow in BoJo's footsteps. Even though she "now has her finger on the UK's nuclear button," she is "no more of a self-centered warmonger" than her former boss, according to Nick Griffin, political analyst and former European lawmaker.

"There will be a brief period of extra danger, or at least some extra huffing and puffing, if Truss has a plan to carve herself out a reputation as a 'hard woman' from the start of her premiership," Griffin said. "But provided she doesn't provoke some real escalation of the crisis within her first hundred days, that danger should recede somewhat."

The former MEP forecast that "the converging domestic crises she has just inherited will be soaking up all her energy" by Christmas. Under these circumstances, the prospect of making the situation "even worse by deepening the new Cold War should be unappealing even to her," he believes.

"The truth is that, for all the talk about Liz Truss now being 'in charge,' the UK's energy, economic, financial and social runaway train is now so far down the slope and hurtling towards such a sharp series of bends that not even a brilliant prime minister could control it," Griffin noted. "The only thing that might get her off the hook is a prompt return to common sense among the Powers-That-Be in Berlin. An early and powerful appearance by General Winter would help to concentrate their minds, but nothing Liz Truss can say or do will make any difference either way."

Britain is heading full throttle towards recession before the end of this year, with growth expected to be weak into 2023 and 2024, according to the British Chamber of Commerce. Skyrocketing energy prices are continuing to accelerate inflation as well as a slowing economy and falling real wages are likely to put the new Truss cabinet to the test.