Study: 8 Million Americans Will Experience Temperatures Over 125°F by Next Year, 107 Million by 2053

Feeling the heat? Record-breaking temperatures soared across the United States in July of this year. Wichita Falls, Texas, for instance, recorded temperatures of 115°F (46.1°C) this July, breaking their record of 112°F (44.4°C) in 2018. The Northeast and the mid-Atlantic also came under heat advisories during that same month.

In July of this year—for five straight days—Newark, New Jersey experienced temperatures of 100°F (37.8°C), breaking both a daily temperature record for July 24 as well as marking its longest 100-plus streak ever documented. Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, Maryland, also saw temperatures climb to 107°F (41.7°C). Nighttime did not abate those sweltering numbers, either, with temperatures hovering 4 degrees above the 20th century average during the night.

Those uncomfortable and life-threatening temperatures will only get worse in the years to come. The nonprofit group First Street Foundation, which uses models to assume risk factors for properties across the county including heat, fire, and flooding, released a new model on Monday that predicts what temperatures levels will look like, and the model shows a dire outlook.

The climate crisis is affecting the health and safety of everyone on the planet and is impacting the food we eat, causing sea levels to rise, bringing floods and other storms, and is also driving another inescapable health risk: heat.

First Street Foundation’s model shows that by as soon as next year, about 8 million people in the United States will be affected by temperatures as high as 125°F (51.7°C), the highest level of the National Weather Services’ heat index, which uses temperature as well as humidity readings to assess how hot it actually feels outside.

By 2053 the number of people affected by extreme heat will grow to 107 million people, as an “extreme heat belt” is expected to descend upon 25 percent of the United States during that time, stretching from the Northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin with temperatures over 125°F.

Our analysis uncovered an emerging “Extreme Heat Belt” stretching from the Northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana, and even into Wisconsin. Read more about our findings in this article by @washingtonpost https://t.co/6ORKdPQwkB

— First Street Foundation (@FirstStreetFdn) August 15, 2022

The states of Texas and Florida (specifically Miami-Dade County) will face the greatest increases in temperatures, with their number of heat days increasing to 34 days at temperatures of 103°F (39.4°C). And on average, says First Street, the local hottest seven days for the country are expected to turn into the hottest 18 days by 2053.

“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” said Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation. “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire.”