Democrats’ Chance of Holding Onto Senate After Midterm Elections Surge, Polling Analysis Group Finds

The much-discussed GOP advantage in the coming midterm elections could be under threat, according to a number of recent polls.

Republicans’ chances of taking control of Congress in November have taken a hit in recent weeks, according to new polls giving the Democratic Party candidate the lead in a number of this year’s most closely-contested Senate fights.

538, a polling analysis firm favored by liberal corporate media outlets, has lowered its odds of Republicans taking the Senate from 55% to 39% since July. In key battleground states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia – where Democrat Raphael Warnock led his GOP opponent Herschel Walker by 9% in the most recent survey available – Democrats appear to be opening a path to avoid losing the entire Congress in a midterm election in which they’ve long looked poised to hand the House back to Republicans.

Recent polling and election results are consistent with a political environment that is a) politically neutral (i.e. generic ballot of ~0) and b) no GOP enthusiasm advantage.

*If* that holds, the *House* is a toss-up, and Ds are very likely to hold the Senate and may gain seats.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2022

But an average of recent polls in that Georgia race show Warnock with an average lead of just 3%. And while a number of recent headlines by corporate media headlines have seized on such polls in an effort to dispel long standing assumptions about the inevitability of a GOP takeover in Congress, it’s unclear that the Democrats will be able to maintain their current leads for the remaining three months before voters go to the polls.

Many reporters looking to validate their narrative of a potential Democratic comeback have seized on Kansans’ overwhelming rejection of a confusingly-worded proposed constitutional amendment that sought to overturn a state Supreme Court decision codifying the right to abortion.

The measure, which was pushed by right-wing groups looking to capitalize on the victory handed to them by the Supreme Court’s recent decision overturning Roe v. Wade, was voted down 59% to 41% – a dynamic Democrats hope to capitalize on as they look to assure voters that the recent surge in cost-of-living is beyond their control.

Other analyses seeking to explain the boost in Democratic fortunes put greater weight in last month’s pause in inflation increases. But it’s unclear whether such indicators – or the recent dip below $4 in nationwide average gas prices – is likely to last until November.