IEA No Longer Expects Drop in Oil Production in Russia in 2022, Report Says

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil production in Russia and no longer expects a fall in the country's oil output in 2022, according to its fresh report released on Thursday.

"We have revised our throughput forecast up by 380 kb/d for the rest of the year, on the assumption that product exports will not slow until the official start of the EU embargo for Russian refined product imports in February 2023," the report said.

The IEA believes that an annual average output of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia (oil and condensate) will amount to 10.86 million barrels per day in 2022, which is "steady versus 2021."

The IEA's expectations for oil, condensates production in Russia for a month did not come true once again — instead of the predicted decline in July, the output rose by some 25,000 barrels per day to 11.09 million barrels per day. This is only 310,000 barrels per day below the level before the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.

"Although the EU embargo on Russian crude and product imports that comes into full effect in February 2023 is expected to result in further declines, some policymakers have suggested a possible softening of measures. That has led us to revise up 2H22 Russian volumes by a further 500 kb/d and make an upward adjustment of 800 kb/d for 2023," the agency added.