Queen's Gambit? US Risking 'Unpopular 82YO Speaker' to Test China's Strength, Military Analyst Says

© AP Photo / J. Scott ApplewhiteSpeaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks at a news conference as Democrats push to bring the assault weapons ban bill to the floor for a vote, at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, July 29, 2022. Pelosi says the House will consider the public safety bills on police reform later when the House considers the Senate reconciliation package. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks at a news conference as Democrats push to bring the assault weapons ban bill to the floor for a vote, at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, July 29, 2022. Pelosi says the House will consider the public safety bills on police reform later when the House considers the Senate reconciliation package. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) - Sputnik International, 1920, 01.08.2022
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Despite protests from China and even warnings from the White House itself, reports continue to emerge that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning to make a stop on her Asia trip in Taiwan – an island that Beijing considers a part of its territory and which Washington does not formally recognize.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is yet to confirm reports that she is palling to visit Taiwan, but tensions are already rising between the US and China, with both militaries intensifying their activities close to the island. While the Chinese PLA is formally conducting routine exercise, the US military reportedly moved assets to protect the House speaker's jet on the way to the island.
Sputnik discussed the situation around Pelosi's alleged visit, its goals and consequences with retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense.
Sputnik: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may arrive in Taiwan on August 2. Amid all the concerns from inside the US and warnings from the Chinese government, why is the House speaker engaging in such provocative actions?
Karen Kwiatkowski: There are several conceivable reasons, none consistent with the deliberately ambiguous US policy toward Taiwan, and all violating the stated One-China policy of past US presidents. Biden being ill with Covid at the same time contributes to [the] confusing situation. Is the current US policy toward China intended to be confrontational? Or only to appear to be confrontational as long as Taiwanese political donations are flowing? It seems that the only substantial US commitment to Taiwan is overpriced arms sales and donation of excess COVID vaccines.
Sputnik: What are the motives of this visit in the first place?
Karen Kwiatkowski: This visit may be little more than a goodbye tour for Pelosi, to thank her many political donors in the region. Lame-duck Speaker Pelosi seems to operate in her own world of political privilege, based on a long career of doing exactly that. Biden's staff seem as well to be operating inside of a bubble of their own making, and neither the president or his staff seems to be listening to or observing actual US military advice. The US military at sea is not what it once was, and US forces are matched in the best of conditions, and would be overwhelmed in cases where the logistical tail is long and vulnerable, as it generally is with operations far from home. US allies in the region likewise would be strapped to assist or defend.
Sputnik: The US military is reportedly moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of the visit. How can China tolerate this escalation and why is Washington engaging in this?
Karen Kwiatkowski: I suspect Pentagon and CINCPAC advice was ignored by both Pelosi, as well as the young and inexperienced men and women in the US National Security Advisor, led by advisor Jake Sullivan. Given the possibility of Pelosi's stop in Taiwan, they are forced into a rearguard action. They cannot leave her "unprotected", they cannot ignore her "visit" as inconsistent with US policy, and in their defense, generally the US military in various regions will stand-up some activity at times of opposing force exercises, as China is conducting in the area now. The fact that those exercises likely were precipitated by US politics is one more reminder that we may be living in the summer of 1914, instead of 2022.
Sputnik: Is the US indeed playing with fire here? Why is Washington dragging itself into the conflict with China, while actively participating in confrontation with Russia in Ukraine?
Karen Kwiatkowski: The US military is not a defensive military -- it is offensively oriented. It works for and serves the political leadership, and is not the kind of organization that will conduct a coup, rein in political leadership, or lead any kind of course correction for US policy. Many around the world and in the US have a false hope that the US military would do these kinds of things, perhaps to help our own country change course, but this idea is misplaced. 99% of all generals and admirals are completely political, as militaries generally are during long periods of peace. The 70 years of interference and military ops around the world since WWII have in fact qualified as the work of a highly politicized peacetime military, rather than a nation at constant war.
That's the background. From a military perspective, some risk is acceptable if it leads to a better understanding of the enemy and its capability. [The] US defense industry is among the biggest and most influential economic sectors in the US. China is the primary US economic military competitor (both in sales and direct military strength). US politicians understand to fuel patriotism and support, nothing works better than an attack on a US target by a major enemy. Risking the life of an unpopular 82-year-old speaker of the House in her last several months of service to accomplish these aims makes sense in some ways. Further, initiation of conflict, even low level ones, often means debts are either ignored or repudiated (US owed China $1.1 trillion in 2021) or paid in kind through military support (the US owes Japan $1.2 trillion and Taiwan $235 billion). A small war in the East or even elevated tensions could serve as a financial reset -- allowing new US money creation and uninhibited borrowing by the US government.
Sputnik: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already warned that the visit could lead to serious consequences. What could these consequences be?
Karen Kwiatkowski: The stern language of the Chinese leadership is consistent with their overt regional policy regarding Taiwan, as well their territorial interests in the South China Sea. Whether this is legally supported, or reflects a shared regional perspective is irrelevant. The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must, a position that many countries formerly invaded and occupied by the modern US military understand from experience. At the reactive end of the spectrum, we could see a Chinese military escort of Pelosi's aircraft away from Taiwan, or a grounding of her plane in Taiwan -- or even a legitimate accident relating to her aircraft. I suspect that the threat of a Pelosi visit to Taiwan is US saber-rattling, aimed at intelligence gathering only, not military engagement or even to show additional support for Taiwan. It is also intended to shift US and world attention from the domestic and political situation in Washington relating to poor military readiness, financial collapse and possible 25th Amendment actions relating to a decrepit and ill Mr Biden. I would not be surprised if Pelosi chooses at the last minute not to visit Taiwan, for logistical or possibly medical reasons.
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