Iraq & Saudi Arabia Reportedly Diverting Oil to Europe as Riyadh Promises Minute Output Boost

The shift comes as EU countries agree to ban most Russian oil imports in response to its special military operation in Ukraine, raising the threat of local crude shortages and prompting a surge in already-high fuel prices.

Middle East oil exports have shifted from Asia to Europe, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq increasing most of their shipments to the continent following the ban on Russian oil, Bloomberg has reported citing data on oil tankers' movements.

According to the news agency, the volume of Middle Eastern oil sold to Europe has nearly doubled compared to 2021, with daily crude shipments from the region to Europe increasing to around 2.2 million barrels, Bloomberg claimed, stressing that this represents a 90% growth compared to January.

The shipments reportedly follow one of two routes: firstly through Egypt's SuMed pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea and then via tankers, or secondly via the Suez Canal, which is only apt for smaller tankers such as those employed by Iraq. Bloomberg claims that the volume pumped via SuMed jumped by 800,000 barrels a day, reaching the highest point since April 2020.

At the same time, it appears that the boost in exports to Europe comes at the expense of shipments to key Asian markets. The ship-tracking data shows that Russia, whose oil was banned from the EU, is diverting its shipments to Asia to potentially close the vacuum created by the Middle Eastern shift.

However, this market swap comes at an expense, commodity analysts pointed out for Bloomberg. Europe's ton-miles ̶ a measure equal to the cargo volume multiplied by the shipment’s distance ̶ have nearly doubled after switching to Middle Eastern crude, while ton-miles for Russian oil exports to Asia nearly tripled. This, in turn, raises shipping costs and potentially the price of oil and its derivatives.

The change in oil export patters comes following US President Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East during which he asked Riyadh to boost its oil output. The kingdom, however, only pledged a less-than 20% increase, which will fail to replace Russian oil supplies to Europe. Other parts of the world have continued to purchase Russian crude, but restrictive measures have prompted the black gold's price to skyrocket.

Prices may increase further should EU anti-Russian sanctions restricting vessel insurance prompt a halt to sea oil shipments. Such a measure would eliminate several tons of oil per day from the global market, which is already short on the supply of the high-demand commodity.