‘We May Have a Problem’: Polish Media Reveals When Warsaw May Run Out of Gas

European economies are bracing for the fallout from the largely self-inflicted energy crisis brought on by Brussels’ push to entirely “phase out” or dramatically cut Russian oil, gas, and coal purchases. On Sunday, Germany’s gas regulatory body warned that the European industrial giant won’t be able to get through the winter without Russian gas.

Poland will have enough gas supplies to last the country through the winter, but could face major shortages and even run out if Russian gas supplies stop, Polish radio broadcaster RFM 24 has calculated.

“At the moment, Poland is only provided with gas until March…This is what we have in storage and in the form of contracted supplies,” the outlet indicated in a report on Wednesday.

“This means that even if Russia cuts off its supplies to the West completely and permanently, Poland will not run out of gas this winter. But in the spring we may have a problem. At that time, we may run out of gas, for example for the production of chemicals and, above all, agricultural fertilizers. This would herald a problem regarding food availability and prices,” the report warned.

RFM 24 says the country’s gas storage facilities are currently topped up to 98 percent of capacity, well above those of most of Warsaw’s neighbors, including Germany, whose current stockpile is only approaching 65 percent.

Until the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Poland relied on Russia for over 45 percent of its natural gas purchases, 65 percent of its oil, and 15 percent of its coal.

The country is also a major coal producing power in its own right, with nearly 85 percent of its electricity generation needs accounted for by coal mines built mostly during the Polish People’s Republic-era. Warsaw did not shutter these plants in the 2000s and 2010s, notwithstanding EU environmental directives. Poland also has an LNG regasification terminal with a capacity of 6.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, and plans to build a second terminal capable of regasifying another six bcm, by 2026.

Last week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that the new Baltic Pipe pipeline running from Poland to the gas-rich Norwegian sector of the North Sea would deliver five bcm of gas to Poland this year, and up to 10 bcm next year.

Poland consumed some 20 bcm of gas in 2021, but is projected to drop consumption to about 18 bcm in 2022 amid the Ukraine crisis. Gazprom halted sales to Poland in late April after Warsaw refused to pay the Russian gas giant in rubles.

Elsewhere in Europe, the IMF has predicted that economic output could fall as much as six percent in case of a complete cutoff of Russian gas. On Tuesday, European Commission chief spokesman Eric Mamer told reporters that Brussels was basing winter preparedness plans on a “worst possible scenario” in which Moscow turned off the taps.

Poland is arguably better off than other EU economies when it comes to energy security, with the International Monetary Fund warning Wednesday that the German economy will face “quite significant downside risks” from the prospect of gas shortages, with economic growth expected to fall to a crawl in 2022 and 2023.

Russia has not given any indications of any plans to cut off gas supplies to the EU, and officials have insisted that Moscow remains ready to supply energy to all European countries willing to pay in rubles. Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized Brussels’ attempts to decouple the EU from Russia’s energy as economic “suicide,” and indicated that European countries’ efforts will force Moscow to proceed from its own economic interests.

Gazprom dramatically reduced gas deliveries to Germany last month via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline amid maintenance issues caused by Canada’s refusal to ship a Siemens turbine to Russia due to sanctions. Last week, Ottawa relented, and on Monday, a source told a Russian business newspaper that the turbine is on its way to Russia, and should arrive by July 24, enabling deliveries to resume following its installation. Kiev slammed Ottawa for the move, vowing Sunday that Ukrainians would “never accept” the decision to return the turbine.