Damascus Should Join Astana Format to Reinvigorate Syrian Peace Process, Turkish Observers Say

During the July 19 trilateral meeting in Tehran, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey vowed to ensure the territorial integrity of Syria, root out terrorist elements in the Arab Republic and help Syrian refugees to return home. They also called upon the US to remove its military forces from eastern Syria.

The July 19 summit in Tehran was conducted within the framework of the so-called Astana format that was created in 2015 to facilitate peaceful negotiations between Damascus and the Syrian opposition. During the meeting, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan praised the Astana process as the most effective measure that will facilitate a political solution in Syria and emphasized the necessity to further reinvigorate it.

"The parties suspended the active negotiation process on the Syrian settlement for some time," says chairman of the Research Center on Terrorism and Counterterrorism of 21st Century Institution of Turkey, retired Col. Unal Atabay. "From this point of view, President Erdogan's call to revive the Astana format is important. We can say that this was the main task of the last summit in Tehran."

According to Atabay, it is necessary to involve Damascus in the Astana format in order to intensify the settlement process:

“The presence of the Syrian state, even if symbolic, will facilitate the negotiation process and make a significant contribution to its activation," notes the retired colonel. "Syria is a member of the UN, and given that every summit of the Astana platform emphasizes the importance of the territorial integrity of Syria, the authorities of this country should take part in this process one way or the other."

Recently, Turkish officials began to talk about the necessity of a more flexible approach towards Damascus, remarks Ceyhun Bozkurt, a Turkish political commentator and journalist. According to him, the arrival of the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad in Tehran on the day of the trilateral summit could be interpreted "as a transition from a mediated dialogue to closer contacts."

"Still, a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement looks unlikely in the short term," the journalist admits.

US Presence in Syria is a Destabilizing Factor

Meanwhile, the US presence in the region is hindering the settlement process, according to Atabay. He insists that the results of the Astana process will not fully meet our expectations unless the US forces are finally withdrawn from the region.

The retired colonel points out that the Pentagon's support of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) creates a window of opportunity for terrorist elements in Syria. "If this factor is eliminated, the Syrian problem will be resolved due to the efforts of the guarantor countries [Russia, Turkey, Iran] and Damascus,” he says. Ankara sees the Kurdish People's Protection Units – the SDF's backbone – as an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist organization in Turkey.

"Terrorist elements in Syria threaten Turkey and the entire region," echoes Bozkurt. "Therefore, the resumption of contacts between the guarantor countries, of course, plays an important role. The US supports the PKK/Kurdish militias east of the Euphrates, but the areas west of the Euphrates are predominantly controlled by Russia and Iran."

Bozkurt recalls that previously Turkey received guarantees from the US-led coalition that the areas of Manbij and Tal Rifaat would be cleared of Kurdish militants. However, attacks are still taking place in these areas, triggering Ankara's discontent, according to the commentator.

"For their part, Iran and Russia express concern over Ankara's plans to conduct a new operation in these territories [Manbij and Tal Rifaat]," Bozkurt says. "At the same time, they have a number of demands related to Idlib, with which Turkey does not agree. That is, there are a number of points on which the parties do not have unanimity. However, the summit's participants unanimously agree on the need to bring an end to the presence of US forces and Kurdish militants east of the Euphrates."

The Turkish journalist is confident that the temporary disagreements with regard to the territory west of the Euphrates will not result in tension between Russia, Turkey and Iran.

"They will act in accordance with the balance of power on the ground," says Bozkurt. "The revival of the Astana process equally benefits all three guarantor states."

The fact that the meeting between Putin and Erdogan took place at a time when NATO designated Russia as a primary threat shows that Russo-Turkish relations are of utmost importance for Ankara and Moscow, according to the journalist.

"As you know, the United States was dissatisfied with the Astana process," he says. "However, Turkey made it clear that although it is a member of NATO, it will pursue an independent policy in the region, based on its own national interests."