UK Follows US in ‘Upgrading’ Taiwan Ties & Escalating Tensions With China, Analysts Say

Beijing has chastised London after Taipei’s chief trade negotiator in June met, as Politico writes, citing its sources, with “economic and trade officials” in the UK to focus on “topics including CPTPP and trade relations” and stressed that “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.”

The timing of the London visit by Taipei’s trade negotiator John Deng was important, says Dr. Victor Teo, political scientist specializing in international relations in the Asia-Pacific, because if China were to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) before the island, “it would mean the certain exclusion of Taiwan from this trade body in the future.”

After the reported trade talks in London on 16 June, Beijing, whose official policy envisions a peaceful unification of Taiwan with Mainland China, was quick to reiterate its stance.

“Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, it is not a country, which is universally recognized by the international community,” a Chinese diplomatic spokesperson was cited by Politico as saying.

The UK Trade Department stopped short of offering any clarifications, while confirming the meeting of its officials with Deng.

The British side was governed by “political and economic interests” when it opted to risk igniting China’s wrath, suggests Dr. Victor Teo.

The trade talks between the UK and Taiwan may also reflect a “change in UK’s policy toward Taiwan as a result of changes in its China policy,” notes Dr. Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.

“The US led this trend by comprehensively upgrading its relations with Taipei since the Trump administration,” says Baohui, adding that Britain tended to tread with caution in its relations with Taiwan in the past. However, now the UK is “adjusting its China policy.”

The clash over Hong Kong, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui, “significantly enhanced their differences and mutual strategic mistrust.”

“For example, it sent an aircraft carrier to the South China Sea last summer, very much to the disliking of Beijing. The UK also formed a new trilateral security mechanism with Australia and the US last year while not naming China as its target. The UK's trade talk with Taiwan could be consistent with this new trend,” he said.

Beijing's reaction to any improper statement such as challenging Taiwan as an inseparable part of China can be expected, insisted Dr. Chang Ching, research fellow at the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies.

However, the British government has a clear policy towards the sensitive One-China issue, the prominent military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan noted.

“In the aspect of trade and commerce, any discussion with representatives from Taipei regarding the participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trading arrangement does not violate the One-China principle kept by Her Majesty's government. Nonetheless, it is originated by a media report and cannot be fully verified as the British official position,” he stated.

Dr. Chang Ching advised against defining such a statement as a “policy shift” within British government diplomacy.

‘Trade With China’ Factor

Regarding the regional fallout from a possible row between the UK and China over Taiwan, it is too early to predict the consequences, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui.

Underscoring that unlike Sino-US relations, Britain and China are not “strategic competitors,” he clarified:

“The UK has already boosted its presence in the region by its new trilateral security pact with Australia and the United States. It has also enhanced defense cooperation with Japan, by jointly developing the next generation jet fighter. However, Britain should have less incentives, compared to the US to have a contentious relationship with China.”

Sino-British relations should not have a major impact on the region in the foreseeable future, Dr. Zhang Baohui concluded.

Any spat over Taiwan would boost tensions in UK-China relations and West-China relations, Dr. Victor Teo suggested, but underscored the “declining economic circumstances” currently being faced by many countries. Accordingly, trade with China would likely become more important, according to him.

“As most Western countries have agreed on the 'One China Principle', it is hard to see how they can persist in promoting Taiwan’s interests steadfastly at the expense of their relationship with China,” Dr. Victor Teo said.

A row between London and Beijing would not affect anything in the region at all, Dr. Chang Ching asserted, adding:

“After all, Beijing is very near and London is too remote."