Israel-Saudi Deal, Palestinians & Iran Agreement: What’s on Agenda of Biden's Mideast Trip?

Preparations are in full swing in Israel for the official visit of US President Joe Biden, expected in the country on July 13. The US president will hold a series of meetings before he heads off to the Palestinian Authority.

During the two-day visit, the American head of state will meet with Israel's top officials. These will include the new prime minister, Yair Lapid, alternate PM Naftali Bennett, as well as opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He is also set to visit an Iron Dome missile defense base, a system developed jointly by the US and Israel.

The main focus of the US president’s upcoming trip will be a stop in Saudi Arabia, Danny Ayalon, Israel's former ambassador to the US, believes

"In the upcoming trip, the focus will be on Jeddah. Of course, the Saudis will not normalize relations with Israel but cooperation will be on the table."

Riyadh has repeatedly said that a normalization pact with Israel is not possible unless the Palestinian issue is resolved. Israel, which has just entered a transitional period ahead of the November midterm elections is not in a position to offer concessions, apart from symbolic gestures such as granting more work permits to Gazans or allowing crowds to pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.

But what Israel can offer to the Saudis, Ayalon says, is a solution to an issue that has been bothering them for years – control over the Tiran and Sanafir Islands in the Red Sea.

The two islands were under Saudi jurisdiction until 1950, when Riyadh transferred them to Egypt. Israel captured them during the Six Day War, but later returned them to Cairo as part of the 1979 bilateral peace treaty.

Egypt has been in control of the islands since then, but in 2016 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi promised to give them back to the Saudis. However, for that to happen, he needs the consent of the Israelis, due to the terms of the 1979 agreement.

Back then, Israeli consent was not given. Now, however, it seems to be on the table, Ayalon says. He stresses that Israel may use the issue as a bargaining chip in talks on the opening of Saudi airspace for Israeli planes or on defense cooperation. The latter is crucial for Riyadh, he says, especially in light of the threat emanating from Yemen's Houthi rebels, linked to Iran.

"Of course, the Saudis will continue with their lip service to the Palestinians, but cooperation will be taking place under the radar. However, the scope of that cooperation will not be big", the former diplomat says. "There is a generation gap between the Saudi king and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and unless there is a shift, nothing will move towards the formalization of ties," he added.

Palestinian Issue

Before Biden came to power, he vowed to support the two-state solution, resume funding for the Palestinians that was halted under his predecessor, and open the American Consulate in East Jerusalem to counter balance their embassy in the western part of the disputed city.

More than a year after his inauguration, many of the issues he had promised to resolve are still up in the air.

The US Consulate hasn't been opened in East Jerusalem yet, and doubts run high as to whether it ever will. The Palestinian Liberation Organization's office in Washington that was shut under President Donald Trump is still closed. Funds that were given to the Palestinians in the past have not been fully restored.

The Palestinians have repeatedly stressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of progress on their front, and Ayalon says the arrival of Biden is aimed at calming the mood.

"There won't be any breakthrough on the Palestinian front. But Biden does want to take some credit for the economic assistance to the Palestinians, and he does want to bolster the security cooperation between Israel and the PA, sending a message to Hamas."

Iran Nuclear Deal

Although last week another round of talks between the US and Iran ended in a stalemate, Washington is still interested in pursuing that path.

If a deal is reached, the US would remove many of its sanctions from the Islamic Republic in exchange for the ability to supervise Tehran's nuclear program.

The deal taking shape is disturbing officials in Jerusalem and Riyadh, who claim that a nuclear Iran might threaten their security, allegations Tehran has repeatedly denied. Ayalon says Biden's visit will try to mitigate the damage. He will also try to "get the support of Israel for the deal". But the Jewish state is unlikely to be convinced, even under the leadership of the more liberal Yair Lapid.

The Israeli PM is heading to Paris on Tuesday, where he will meet President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the deal with Iran and attempts by the Islamic Republic to remove its Revolutionary Guards from the list of terror organizations.

In September, he is also planning a trip to New York, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and raise the issue of Iran once again.

"Lapid is likely to tell Biden that Israel is not bound by this agreement, if it does happen. Israel will emphasize that it will have a free hand when it comes to Iran, and that also means that it can adhere to plan B," Ayalon said, referring to a military option.

Russia's Operation in Ukraine

However, Biden is not only going to Israel for the sake of regional issues, the former diplomat claims. His visit to Israel and Saudi Arabiacomes amid raging hostilities in Ukraine, and the US head of state will try to convince the two Middle Eastern nations to stand by the side of Washington, he adds.

Although Saudi Arabia cracked under the American pressure to pump more oil, prices on crude continue to climb, shaking the economies of the US and Europe.

Israel, on its part, has also taken a lukewarm approach vis-a-vis Ukraine. Although it has publicly denounced Russian actions, absorbed thousands of Ukrainian refugees, and provided thousands more with medical and humanitarian assistance, it has not joined sanctions against Russia. And Ayalon says his country is not planning to change its course.

"President Vladimir Putin has been friendly with Israel for all these years. Plus, we have a big Russian population in this country. So I doubt Israel will join the Western sanctions against Moscow. It is simply not in our interests," he concluded.