Europe Faces Prospect of Fuel Shortages Amid Tough Winter, International Energy Agency Chief Says

The grim forecast came on the same day that the EU announced an agreement to ban Russian maritime oil imports due to the special military operation in Ukraine. Some EU politicians claimed it would reduce crude purchases from Russia by 90%, although only two-thirds of Russian oil is shipped to the EU by sea.

The US and EU might face a fuel crisis this summer amid changes to the oil market, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol has said.

According to Birol, the shortages will likely hit Europe more, due to it not only being dependent on oil imports, but also on oil-derived products.

"When the peak holiday season kicks off in Europe and the US, fuel demand will increase. It would, in turn, prompt bottlenecks: for example with diesel, petrol or kerosene, especially in Europe", he said.

Birol further expressed fears that Europe will face a tough winter, potentially having to ration gas usage, especially in countries importing the fuel from Russia. While EU leaders are not yet considering an embargo on Russian gas, the move has not been ruled out amid promises to phase out purchases.

The head of the IEA says the only hope would be if we experience a short and mild winter. He also noted that reducing standard temperatures for heating in buildings by two degrees might mitigate the problem.

What Can Europe Do About the Fuel Crisis?

Birol warned that the nascent fuel crisis is a real problem, and that it might be much more severe and long-lasting than the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s.

For this reason, his agency unveiled a ten-point plan to better prepare economies for the shortages on Sundays.

The proposals focus on reducing EU fuel consumption instead of resolving supply issues such as resuming the purchase of Russian products. The IEA proposes banning personal vehicles from large cities, lowering public transport fares, and imposing stricter speed limit on high-speed motorways.

"[These proposal] wouldn't mean a big change in people's everyday lives. We are in wartime, in an energy crisis, and we had better prepare for even more difficult times […] driving a few kilometres an hour slower is just a tiny compromise", he said.

Other options laid out by the body are to access the 2 billion-barrel international oil reserves managed by the IEA. This, however, would be a decision for the 31 member-states.

Equally, the signing of Iran's nuclear deal, a reduction of Chinese consumption and imports, or the increase of daily production limits by a Middle Eastern country such as Saudi Arabia, may also mitigate the crisis.

The EU made another step towards prompting the crisis on Monday by banning all maritime imports of Russian oil, leaving pipeline-supplied oil exempt. The hard-negotiated step was taken in response to Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed hope that the move would lead to a 90% reduction of oil imports from Russia by the end of the year, even though sea deliveries contribute only two-thirds of Moscow’s overall crude deliveries to the EU.

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