Study: 50-50 Chance Earth Will Exceed 1.5-Degree Warming Milestone in Next 5 Years

© PixabayGlobal warming
Global warming - Sputnik International, 1920, 11.05.2022
In 2015, the European Union and 192 nation states agreed to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, pledging to curb greenhouse emissions in an attempt to limit the heating of Earth to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
It is as likely as not that Earth will have at least one year in the next five that breach the Paris Climate Agreement’s threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in global temperatures, which if maintained, would result in more ecological destruction to the planet through climate change.
A recent study by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated there is a 93% chance that at least one year in the next five will exceed 2016 as the warmest year on record, as well as a 93% chance that the next five years will be warmer than the last five.
Breaching the limit set during the Paris Climate Agreement would not mean that the world failed its goals, at least not yet. It will not be a permanent increase, only a temporary spike where the annual mean is higher than normal, but it is concerning nonetheless.
The worst effects of climate change will not be felt until the planet maintains an increased temperature rise consistently. When that happens, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts we will see crop failures, rising sea levels, drought and increased environmental disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, the destruction of coral reefs and extreme heat waves.
Already, the IPCC says that human emissions have contributed to an increase of 1.07 degrees Celsius (1.9 Fahrenheit) in the planet’s warming when compared to pre-industrial levels.
However, many countries are falling behind targets agreed to within the Paris Agreement. A September study by Climate Action Tracker found that of the 36 countries plus the European Union, only the Republic of The Gambia has made commitments that will keep them on pace with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Gambia is the smallest country in mainland Africa.
US President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda had significant funding for action on climate change, but after failing to pass in 2021, it has seemingly fallen off the table as a priority for both the White House and Congress.
Already we are seeing the effects of climate change, with droughts in East Africa and the US Southwest, and record breaking heat waves in India and Pakistan. Last week, temperatures reached as high as 47 degrees Celsius (116.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in Pakistan.
A worst case scenario prediction by the IPCC says temperatures could increase by 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, creating apocalyptic conditions where human society would struggle to survive.
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