Key Seats to Watch in UK Local Elections as Tories and Labour Vie for 'Swing' Councils

Council seats in Scotland, Wales, London, and many parts of England are up for grabs on 5 May, as voters across the UK head to the polls on 5 May to select their local representatives. Northern Ireland will be electing a new assembly. Most of these seats were last contested in 2018.

As UK voters prepare to head to the polling stations on 5 May in local elections, issues ranging from the cost of living crisis to damaging fallout for the Tories from the ongoing “partygate” row are all predicted to impact the results.

More than 4,350 seats will be contested in England in over 140 councils, along with all of Scotland's 32 councils and all 22 councils in Wales. Northern Ireland will elect a new assembly.

Surveys ahead of the elections have sparked concerns for the UK Conservative Party, with a poll by Electoral Calculus conducted jointly with Find Out Now showing the opposition Labour Party could win 3,500 council seats in a gain of more than 800.

For Keir Starmer’s party, this would be a 15 percent lead over the Conservatives, who are predicted to lose as many as 548 council seats.

The survey showed that 24 percent would cast their votes for the Tories, 39 percent for Labour, and 15 percent of the votes would go to the Liberal Democrats.

Furthermore, UK analysts have predicted that the bigger urban areas could swing to Labour, under the squeeze of the cost of living crisis and disillusionment over “partygate” plaguing the Tory government.

However, the Conservatives are believed to be more likely to hold their ground in towns across the North and the Midlands – so-called former industrial heartlands.

In any case, with every councillor in Greater London, Wales, and Scotland facing re-election, it is these areas that are likely to set the mood for the political parties once the results of the local elections are made public.

Here are some of the key councils to watch for a likely “change of hands”.

In London, Wandsworth and Barnet are the councils to focus on over predictions they may switch to Labour.

Wandsworth, a Tory stomping ground since 1978, is believed to be the most closely-contested.

However, currently, all three of its MPs are from the Labour Party. The borough has 33 Tory councillors to Labour's 26, with one independent. The Conservatives have been campaigning here with a focus on council tax - the lowest average council tax in the country.

"The contest there is partygate versus low council tax. The loss of Wandsworth will impact the morale of the defeated party well beyond the boundaries of London and will have implications for the leadership of either party", Conservative peer and polling expert Lord Hayward was cited by Sky News as saying.

It has been emphasised by polling experts that if Labour cannot win here while surveys place the party ahead of the scandal-mired Tories, then it will be seen as a stark message to the leadership of the opposition.

In Barnet, Labour had a deplorable showing in 2018, with analysts at the time suggesting the vote was driven by concerns about then-leader Jeremy Corbyn, particularly among the Jewish community. Allegations of anti-Semitism plagued the Labour Party under Corbyn.

Westminster is a less hopeful Labour target, as the Tories hold a large majority there. Nevertheless, as the Conservative showing there has been slashed over the years, if Labour scores a win it would be seen as a signal of the Tories losing their dominance in the capital, political analysts cited by Sky News claim.

Labour has also set its sights on taking control of Worthing, in West Sussex, where a third of its councillors face re-election. It is currently governed by a minority Conservative administration.

The implications of a win here are particularly important for Starmer, analysts claim. They underscore that this is the seat that Labour would need to secure at the next general election if it intends to reclaim power nationally.

Southampton, where the Tories gained control by a razor-thin margin a year ago, has been highlighted as another crucial Labour-Tory "swing" council.

Keir Starmer could tout having made significant progress if Labour can win it back this time.

Boris Johnson will be tested if he still holds appeal in the so-called “red wall” (also referred to as Labour's red wall or the Labour heartlands) in Burnley, Lancashire. It was here that the Tories made gains last year.

Wakefield, West Yorkshire, also with “red wall” status, will be closely watched, as a Commons by-election is taking place in the seat over the summer. It was there that sex offender Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan resigned, leaving the seat up for grabs.

The council results could serve as an indicator of whether the Tories can hold on to the parliamentary seat.

The Liberal Democrats’ best chance of making gains hinges on the Somerset council. The party is seen by analysts as presenting a strong challenge to the Conservatives in rural areas, looking hopefully towards the looming Tiverton and Honiton by-election triggered by Neil Parish’s recent resignation.

The Conservative member of the British Parliament quit after admitting to having watched pornography on his phone in the House of Commons.

‘Worst-Case’ Scenario or Minor ‘Setback’?

Ahead of the elections, analysts say the worst-case scenario for the embattled prime minister would be if his party loses 500 seats or more nationwide.

That would see Labour councillors outnumbering Tories by a 3:1 ratio, with the possible loss of three of the Tory councils in London.

However, if Conservative losses number in the low hundreds, with a handful of councils passing into Labour hands, the Tories could dismiss the outcome as no more than a setback. If Boris Johnson, for all his troubles, including reportedly facing a looming no confidence vote pending the publication of civil servant Sue Gray’s “partygate” report, defies predictions and loses fewer than 100 councillors, he could feel bolstered. Instead, the results might put additional pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who had been vehemently calling for Johnson to step down.