With Ties Between Egypt & Turkey Set to Restart, What is Behind the Move?

Relations between the two nations started souring in 2011 following the eruption of the Arab Spring. Ankara supported the protests and when then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was ousted, Turkey threw its backing behind the Muslim Brotherhood* movement, which is outlawed in Egypt and a number of other countries.

Turkey is continuing its reconciliation efforts with Egypt, as earlier this month it was reported that the two states were set to exchange ambassadors after a nine-year standoff. Now reports are coming out that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is expected to meet with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry later this month.

For Hussein Hareedy, a former assistant to Egypt's foreign minister, the recent rapprochement is hardly surprising. He says it is "the fruition" of a long process that was initiated by the Turks and that was aimed at repositioning Turkey on the international world stage.

"The Turks might be looking to reapply their pre-2011 policy of zero problems with neighbours because they might have come to the realisation that their policy of using force [in the region- ed.] didn't bring any results".

Souring Ties

Relations between Turkey and Egypt started to worsen in 2011 with the eruption of the Arab Spring in the North African country. Ankara openly supported the idea of ousting then President Hosni Mubarak. It also gave its backing to presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood* (MB) movement, outlawed in many countries of the region.

Ties also soured because of Turkey's attempts to challenge Cairo in Libya, where the two nations support conflicting sides, and in the Eastern Mediterranean over drilling of the area's rich gas reserves.

However, Egypt was not the only country that was worried about Turkey's foreign policy in the region. Cairo's regional allies such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were wary too, and that eventually led to the deterioration of those relations.

This deterioration was so serious that in 2013 Egypt withdrew its ambassador from Ankara, a move that was reciprocated by the Turks. The UAE and Saudi Arabia stopped investing in the Turkish economy.

Turning a Page

Now, Ankara seems to want to turn that page. Lately, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been taking steps to improve Ankara's relations with its neighbours. In February, he visited the UAE for the first time in nearly a decade, sealing a number of lucrative deals for his country.

The Turkish head of state is also set to visit Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks, and Egypt is expected to be another country on his reconciliation list.

"Ankara has finally realised that it needs to adapt itself to the region. They now understand that changing their attitude would open their market to North Africa and the Gulf, and it would have a positive impact on their country's economy", said the former diplomat.

When Erdogan came to power, the Turkish economy showed impressive growth, but recent years have seen a deterioration in the financial situation in Turkey.

In December 2021, the Turkish lira slumped to record lows, losing some 40 percent of its value and reaching 16.69 for US dollar. The inflation rate also surged rising from 21 percent in November 2021 to 36 percent in December.

Adding to these woes, Turkey has also seen a dramatic increase in the cost of food and drink, something that has shattered the standing of Erdogan and empowered the opposition. To minimise the damage, says Hareedy, the Turkish leader is now seeking to stabilise the economy, and that's why he is making efforts to mend his ties with Egypt and other regional players.

No Need For Confrontation

Hareedy says that Egypt is not interested in continuing a confrontation with Turkey, but the future of the two nations' bilateral ties will largely depend on the Turkish side. It will also hinge on the relations Ankara builds with the Muslim Brotherhood*.

"We know that Turkey will not scrap their ties with the MB. This is not realistic. But we did ask them not to interfere in our domestic affairs and either shut down TV channels associated with them or tone down their editorial line", explains Hareedy. "Egypt has also made it clear to Ankara that it will not tolerate any threat to our borders, especially when it comes to Libya. So it will largely depend on them whether to keep these relations stable or to take a path of confrontation".

*The Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organisation banned in Russia and many other countries.