61 Years On: What Does the Future Hold for Human Space Exploration?

On 12 April 1961, Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first human being to travel into outer space. At present, futurologists around the world continue to speculate on the prospects of humans establishing a greater presence in space over the next 60 years.

Scientific forecasting is a tricky task, especially when it comes to the future of outer space. With Tuesday marking the 61st anniversary of the first manned space flight, speculation on how mankind will deepen its presence in outer space in the next 60 years shows no sign of abating.

According to estimates from futurologists, the next eight years will see a whopping $500Bln pumped into the development of the global space market, a figure that is expected to grow drastically by 2081.

As for the main goals of those seeking to develop space research, these will most likely come under six headings: automation and robotisation of space exploration within and outside the solar system, development of powerful telescopes for studying deep space, and discovery of new planets, including identifying those suitable for life.

Also on the agenda will be the development and creation of innovative spacecraft, as well as space tourism and flights to neighboring and distant planets and their eventual colonisation.

Plans to Colonise Mars

With billionaire SpaceX founder Elon Musk announcing his plans to colonise Mars back in 2016, scientists warn against over-optimism in the matter.

Ian Crawford, professor of Planetary Science & Astrobiology at Birkbeck, University of London, believes that before thinking of colonising Mars, people should take a “logical step” and consider returning to the Moon to gain more experience. (The US Apollo programme sent six human missions to the Moon between 1969 and 1972).

“I’m all in favour of sending people to Mars, but the technology, competence, the experience – I think it’s still out of reach,” Crawford said.

This was echoed by Henry Hertzfeld, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC, who said “the idea of putting people on Mars has been around for a long time”. According to him, “if you read the policies, it is clearly a long-term vision without a date. But we probably are still lacking the technology to keep people in deep space for a long time”.

Hertzfeld pointed out that “where we go in space is decided by a combination of what people would like to do and the reality of time and budgets”.

Back to the Moon?

As far as a manned flight to the Moon is concerned, the Global Exploration Roadmap stipulates first building a space station as an orbital base, which may make it possible to implement lunar projects. Such a base could look like the International Space Station (ISS), a cosmic outpost where humans have been living continuously since 2000.

When it comes to private space flights, a fully­ fledged development of this sector is expected in the immediate future. NASA, in turn, mulls bolstering a tourism sector on board the ISS and dispatching up to two short missions a year to the space outpost. The US space agency is collaborating with private companies and is already conducting commercial flights into orbit with the help of SpaceX rockets.

Other private companies, such as Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic, are developing the so-called sub-orbital spaceflight, which envisages space travellers reaching the boundary of the Earth's atmosphere and landing approximately 10 minutes after lift-off without going into orbit.

Futuristic forecasts depict a rosy picture of private space flights in 2081, when people will purportedly be able to fly around the Earth on weekends, visit the ISS on vacation, soar in zero gravity and enjoy the view through the porthole.

Searching for Extraterrestrial Life

Futurologists say that finding kindred spirits who live in other civilisations could be one of the most wonderful space discoveries people can imagine, but thus far, no reliable signs of extraterrestrial life have been found.

However, they add that over the past 60 years, space devices have become a billion times more sensitive, which is why the hope is that in the next six decades, people will continue the search and scan the universe even more meticulously than before.

Scientists, in the meantime, continue to use powerful telescopes to detect so-­called exoplanets, believing that the more such planets are tracked, the greater the chance that some of them will prove habitable.