What Does Future Hold for Israel as Ruling Coalition Loses Majority in Parliament?

Knesset - Sputnik International, 1920, 07.04.2022
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The Knesset is currently in recess because of the Passover holidays. But when it comes back – five weeks from now – it will need to determine the future of the current coalition.
Israel woke up to a stormy political day on Wednesday, with reports coming out that Idit Silman, a member of the governing Yamina party and a confidante of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, decided to submit her resignation.
The move left Bennett's coalition in control of 60 out of 120 Knesset seats, meaning it will be unable to pass legislation. It also means that they will need to ask for assistance from the Joint Arab List, an alliance of three Arab parties that sit outside of the coalition, if they want to push through any reforms.
Salman's decision prompted excitement in the conservative camp. Former prime minister and current leader of the opposition Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Silman "returning to her home base". Another conservative politician, Batzalel Smotrich, branded the move as the "dawn of a new day" and expressed his joy at the possibility the "anti-Zionist" government will come to an end.
But will it really? Here are three scenarios that could take place as a result of Silman's resignation.

Show Must Go On

For now, Bennett is trying to present business as usual. On Wednesday, he met with the remaining members of his Yamina party to make sure no other shakeups are expected. He also touched base with various members of his coalition to guarantee they will be staying on board of the vessel he has been steering.
Many coalition members would indeed want this government to push on. For them, it is not only about lucrative jobs and power, it is a matter of principle and the desire to see Netanyahu remain in the opposition. But after losing Silman and hence the majority in the parliament, Bennett understands he will not manage to continue the show, and that could push him to seek the support of the Joint Arab List.
Although obtaining their backing might help Bennett secure enough votes to pass bills, it could also be politically suicidal. Some hawkish members of his coalition are already struggling with accepting the fact that they sit in a government with liberals and that their bloc is supported by Raam, an Arab party with purported ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Now they might need to get used to the idea that they will also need the backing of the Joint Arab List to pass legislation, and that might trigger an exodus of conservatives from the already crumbling alliance.
If more defectors leave, the Knesset will not have a choice but to dismiss itself, triggering another round of general elections.

Changing Heads of Government

Going into a fifth round of polls could be problematic for many politicians. Apart from the fact that such a development would cost Israel some $850 million (amid a still raging pandemic), it might also mean that they could lose their jobs and strength at the Knesset. This is the reason why some would like to avoid this scenario at all costs.
As an alternative to the pricey elections, any party at the chamber can initiate a no-confidence vote in the current government. But what it will also need to do is secure enough signatures for the creation of its own coalition that would replace the outgoing one.
The way it stands now, there are two politicians in the Knesset who could pull that off. One of them is Netanyahu, who has already started holding talks with various parliamentarians.
His current bloc already stands at 60 people and includes three religious parties. What he needs now is to secure the signature of one more MK and his path to power is clear. It won't be an easy task, especially as Bennett will try to make sure his players remain loyal to him, but Netanyahu is known for his ability to sweet talk his rivals and as somebody who knows what strings to pull. Silman, who has just left Bennett, was promised the job of health minister under Netanyahu, if he ends up forming a government. Other parliamentarians might be lured by similar deals as well.
Another potential contender for the top job could be Defence Minister Benny Gantz. Although he expressed willingness to attempt to preserve the current coalition, he might also choose to decide otherwise, especially if he secures enough guarantees from lawmakers.
The trouble is that he might not be able to pull it off without the support of Netanyahu's Likud or joining efforts with his rival, Minister of Foreign Affairs Yair Lapid. It is not in the interest of either to see Gantz assume the prime ministership, but in Israeli politics anything is possible and it will largely depend on whether Gantz is creative enough to come up with solutions.

Another Round of Elections?

The coalition might call to dismiss the parliament based on its inability to pass laws and reforms. Such a development could play out in favour of Netanyahu, who enjoys relatively high ratings and whose party keeps on climbing in polls.
A Channel 13 survey has already revealed Likud might get 38 out of 120 seats in the parliament if elections were held today. Even though the poll shows Netanyahu might still not have a majority, heading to the polls could still be an opportunity for the ex-PM to return to power.
The Knesset is currently in recess over the Passover holidays. The plenum will resume its work five weeks from today and that is when Israel will find out whether the current coalition will stay afloat or whether the country is heading to yet another round to polls.
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