Boris Johnson's Tories Face Dramatic Slump, Labour Garners 8-Point Lead in New Poll
🚨Throughout December - on behalf of @thesundaytimes - we've been polling thousands of people (25,000 in total!) and have built an MRP model to give a constituency-by-constituency breakdown for how the country would vote if an election were held today.— Focaldata (@focaldataHQ) December 26, 2021
The results are in.
To put these results into a bit of historical context:— Focaldata (@focaldataHQ) December 26, 2021
📌 237 seats would mark the Conservatives lowest haul since 2005
📌 32% vote share would set the Conservatives back to 2001 levels
📌In the post-war era, the jump in Lab seats would be surpassed only by the 1997 jump pic.twitter.com/UmkgkJGFzO
The MRP model shows Labour winning back EVERY Red Wall seat that voted Conservative in 2019.— Focaldata (@focaldataHQ) December 26, 2021
It predicts that Labour will win all 50 Northern/Midlands/Welsh seats that voted Labour in 2017 but Conservative in 2019.
In a single election, this would be a remarkable reversal. pic.twitter.com/97pm1VE6ta
Just to wrap up, the startling Lab victory our model predicts is more driven by a Conservative collapse than a Labour surge. To be sure, Lab vote % increases, but not to the same degree that the Con % decreases.— Focaldata (@focaldataHQ) December 26, 2021