Biden’s Domestic Agenda Faces ‘Do-or-Die’ Moment in Anticipation of Three Crucial Votes

The president’s congressional allies are racing against the clock to hammer out a deal with the GOP, while simultaneously pushing a $3.5 trillion budget bill and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. Washington risks a government shutdown, or even defaulting on its debts, if an agreement is not reached.

Monday marks the start of a week that could make or break President Joe Biden’s domestic legislative agenda, with his Democratic allies in Congress facing a trifecta of crucial votes.

“The next few days will be a time of intensity,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote in a letter to her caucus on Sunday. She repeated the message on Sunday morning talk shows and Twitter.

This morning, I joined @ThisWeekABC to talk about passing @POTUS Biden’s #BuildBackBetter Agenda. The next few days will be a time of intensity. We must pass a Continuing Resolution, Build Back Better Act and the BIF. https://t.co/qVZXGpoQXs

— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) September 26, 2021

The first of three major votes will take place at 5:30 pm on Monday, when the evenly-split Senate votes on legislation passed by the Democrat-controlled House last week to suspend the debt ceiling through the end of next year and provide funding for the federal government through early December to avoid a shutdown. The bill includes a rider of additional emergency aid for the resettlement of Afghans evacuated out of Kabul last month.

“The resolution is the answer for avoiding numerous fast-approaching crises on the horizon,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who put the debt ceiling bill on the agenda, said.

Needing a 60-vote majority in the 100 seat Senate to advance, the bill is widely expected to fail, with Republicans who voted for over $6 trillion in stimulus spending over the past-year-and-a-half suddenly remembering that they are fiscal conservatives looking to drive down debts and spending.

Congressional sources told CNN that if the debt ceiling vote fails as expected, the Democrats will agree to scrap the debt ceiling suspension portion of the bill in favour of a short-term funding agreement to prevent shutdown and default. Democratic leaders previously indicated that they want the debt ceiling issue to be bipartisan, but have also sought to avoid blame from the public for a new government shutdown ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections.

Along with the debt ceiling issue, House Democrats promise to conclude negotiations on two key pieces of spending – the Build Back Better Act and the $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework – with the latter measure whittled down from about $2 trillion to attract Republican support.

The House is expected to start debate on the $1.2 trillion infrastructure agreement on Monday, with a vote expected on Thursday at the earliest. Speaker Pelosi and other Democratic leaders have threatened to block the infrastructure bill if their wider ten-year, $3.5 trillion budget does not receive support, but have also faced a separate revolt from within the progressive flank of their party amid complaints that the planned spending doesn’t do enough to help ordinary Americans.

“You know I’m never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn’t have the votes,” Pelosi told ABC News on Sunday, adding that “you cannot choose the date” to hold a vote and “have to go when you have the votes in a reasonable time.”

Some Democrats, including Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, are expected to agree to GOP demands to bring down the budget bill’s price tag to bring what he characterised as “painful” negotiations “to completion.”

Complicating matters is wildcard Senator Joe Manchin – a conservative Democrat who regularly votes against his own party’s legislative initiatives. Manchin has previously promised to torpedo the $3.5 trillion spending plan – citing excessive pork such as expanded Medicare and, concerns over the specifics of a clean energy programme.

In her remarks to ABC News on Sunday, Pelosi admitted that it “seems self-evident” that the $3.5 trillion figure would be trimmed before it can pass.

Speaking to reporters on Sunday night, President Biden said he remains “optimistic about this week,” adding that getting to the stage of voting on his agenda is “going to take the better part of the week.” Unnamed officials speaking to CNN Politics have indicated that the president’s mostly “wide open” schedule has been made that way on purpose – to allow the White House to hold meetings, take and make calls with lawmakers, and possibly even have the president visit Congress, with "nothing off the table" for the sake of agreement.

On Monday, the White House put out a memo expressing confidence over the “overwhelming” support it claimed the president’s agenda has among the public.

“As we enter the final phase of legislative negotiations over the President’s economic package – the evidence is overwhelming that the wind is at our backs and the public is eager for both of these packages to become law,” the White House said, referring to the $1.2 and $3.5 trillion spending bills.

A poll by Pew Research last week found that 49 percent of those surveyed support the $3.5 trillion spending package, with 25 percent opposed and 25 percent uncertain.

Avoiding an ‘Economic Catastrophe’

This week’s votes follow warnings by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen earlier this month warning Congress that America would “plunge” into a financial and economic crisis if the two parties could not agree on raising the debt ceiling.

US federal debt currently stands at over $28.8 trillion, with total obligations amounting to over $85 trillion, or more than four times the US’ GDP.