Premier League Matchweek 6 Preview and Predictions
© REUTERS / DYLAN MARTINEZ
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Matchweek six in the Premier League is upon us and there are a host of excellent matches. From Chelsea v Manchester City to Crystal Palace v Brighton, we preview and predict every match of the Premier League weekend.
Chelsea v Manchester City
The biggest match of the weekend is also one of its first. Chelsea and Manchester City are two of the most potent teams in all of Europe. The teams squared off in the Champions League Final mere months ago, and look to build on the bad blood in their first Premier League clash.
Chelsea is tied at the top with 13 points while City lurks in fifth on ten points. It is still early in the season, but a victory for Chelsea would give them a six-point cushion over one of their fiercest rivals for the League crown. On the flip side, a win for City would draw them level on points. So who has the edge?
Manchester City, even without a true centre forward, has been their usual dominant self. The Pep Guardiola-led side has scored 11 goals and conceded one. In fact, they have an expected goals tally of 12.2 against an expected goals allowed of 2.7. Their +9.5 expected goals differential is top of the league and indicates that they'll be in the hunt for the Premier League title.
Chelsea FC fans
© AP Photo
Chelsea, on the surface, look like world-beaters. They have four wins out of five, and their lone draw came against Liverpool in a game where they went down to ten men. Their goal differential of +11 is tied with Liverpool atop the League, but their expected stats indicate a side that isn't quite as dominant.
Chelsea only has 7.6 expected goals and has an expected goals against of 5.5. Their expected goals differential of 2.1 is tied for sixth-best in the league. Part of that is due to the expected goals drubbing they took from Liverpool when they made it out 1-1 but gave up 2.7 expected goals. However, it's not Chelsea's defence that's the worry, it's their attack.
Romelu Lukaku is world-class, but unless there is a real improvement in attack, Chelsea looks a step off the pace.
Prediction: Chelsea 1 - 2 Manchester City
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Manchester United and Aston Villa should prove to be a highly entertaining match. The two sides are at their best when they counter, and an early goal could up the game up and provide end-to-end thrills.
United is clearly the better side. They have more talent at nearly every position, a better goal differential, and a better expected goal differential. They're the superior side, but not by as much as one would think. Their expected goal differential of +2.1 isn't substantially better than Villa's +0.7. This isn't to say that United should be on upset alert, but that Villa have the ability to make this an interesting game.
Cristiano Ronaldo has been excellent in his first two games with United, but they very easily could have dropped points to both Wolves and West Ham. If United wants to prove that they're true title contenders, they need to handle Villa with ease at home. They'll probably win, but if the performance isn't dominant it means they still need to figure some things out.
Prediction: Manchester United 3 - 2 Aston Villa
Watford v Newcastle United
While Chelsea v City will have massive implications for the title race, this matchup could prove just as consequential in the relegation race. Watford currently resides in 11th place in the table, but the safety of mid-table could be fleeting.
Their defence has been solid, but their attack has wildly outperformed expectations. With only 4.9 expected goals compared to eight actual goals, it's only a matter of time before the goals dry up. Watford looks likely to stay just above the relegation zone, but any dip in performance could see them dance with a trip to the Championship.
Newcastle is very much in danger of going down. They reside in 18th place in the league, are tied for the second-worst goal differential, and have the second-worst expected goal differential. In less scientific terms, the Championship beckons.
Newcastle's defence has been utterly atrocious and despite employing legitimately talented attackers, Steve Bruce has opted for an overly defensive approach. Watford is the better side, but something tells me both teams will be happy with a draw.
Prediction: Watford 1 - 1 Newcastle
Everton v Norwich
This one will be short and sweet. Norwich is the worst side in the league. They give up a bushel of goals and don't create much going forward. The only thing going for them is that their futility might be overstated by their opening set of fixtures. They've already played Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester City, and Arsenal. However, in their one winnable game, against Watford, they got waxed 3-1.
Everton's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford tackles Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk
© PETER BYRNE
Everton on the other hand has started the season quite well under Rafael Benitez. They're currently sixth in the table on ten points and have the fifth-best expected goal differential in the league. However, their two star forwards Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are set to be out and that's just the tip of their injury issues. Everton has sufficient quality and depth to handle Norwich but against a stronger side, they could be in serious trouble.
Prediction: Everton 2 - 0 Norwich
Leeds v West Ham
This game could be a bloodbath. West Ham, again, has been excellent and the Premier League's top goalscorer Michail Antonio will be back in action. Leeds is dealing with an injury crisis for the ages that could see them field a U-23 team. Nine first-team players were unavailable for their mid-week cup fixture, and Diego Llorente, Robin Koch, and Patrick Bamford will all be unavailable. Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa was frank about the other six: "The rest of them I couldn't tell you if they will be or they won't be".
"If I said they would definitely play or wouldn't play, neither of those things are certain. That's why I can't confirm either of the two alternatives", he later added.
Leeds were the darlings of the Premier League last season but a rocky start and mounting injury concerns could see the season devolve into survival mode. Leeds' attack has remained strong, but their defence has utterly fallen apart. Without their first-choice centrebacks and their end-to-end style, West Ham may find the back of the net early and often. In a situation like the one Leeds finds themselves in, a draw is a win, and a win is a miracle.
Prediction: Leeds 1 - 4 West Ham
Leicester City v Burnley
This early in the season there are no such things as must-win games, but both Leicester and Burnley could desperately use three points. Leicester needs a win to get back into contention for a European spot, and Burnley needs three points if they want to play in the Premier League next season. Either team missing out on those goals would represent massive failures.
To the casual observer, Leicester should be significant favourites over Burnley, but when you take a look underneath the hood the difference between the two sides is not all that stark. Burnley has a -6 goal differential compared to Leicester's -3, but the expected stats tell a completely different story. Burnely has an expected goal differential of -2.5, while Leicester comes in third from the bottom at -4.1.
Leicester has far more talent at their disposal than Burnley, but it's Burnley who have played better. The game is at home for Leicester which should give them an edge, but this match has "draw" written all over it. Leicester has been poor and is lucky to be 11th in the table, Burnley has been mediocre and is unlucky to be in the drop zone.
Prediction: Leicester 1 - 1 Burnley
Brentford v Liverpool
The final game on Saturday is a showdown between a title hopeful and a newly promoted side. Historically, these games end with a lopsided result, but Brentford isn't the average newly promoted team. The Bees have allowed two goals and have the second-best expected goals allowed in the league at 3.6. Their defence is for real, but it'll come up against one of the world's most dangerous attacks.
Liverpool's attack has started the season red hot. They're tied for second for goals scored with 12, they lead the league in expected goals with 14.5, they've taken the most shots, the most shots on target, and they're in second for average distance from goal per shot. It's no surprise a team led by Mohamad Salah and Sadio Mane has racked up the goals, and it's unlikely even Brentford's mighty defence will slow it down.
Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, front left, celebrates with Liverpool's Sadio Mane after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Sheffield United at Anfield Stadium, Liverpool, England, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2020
© AP Photo / Jon Super
Liverpool looks ready to make a challenge for the Premier League title and has been firing on all cylinders. As much as a Brentford upset would be a magical story for a club that hasn't been in the first division since 1947, it doesn't look likely. Their best chance is to get a goal early and set up to counter. Unfortunately for Brentford, Liverpool has made a habit of starting games well, and not relinquishing control.
Prediction: Brentford 0 - 3 Liverpool
Southampton v Wolverhampton
The first game on Sunday might not appear to be worth waking up for if you live in the US, but there's a real chance it'll be an excellent watch. Southampton can only play close games, as they've tied their last four matches, and the Wolves employee Adama Traore, the world's most entertaining bodybuilder masquerading as a footballer.
Factor in that both sides have well underperformed their expected goal numbers, with Southampton scoring four goals from 6.3 expected goals, and Wolves scoring two from an expected goals of 7.0. In other words, both teams are due for an offensive explosion.
Wolves have been the better side in terms of expected goals, but Southampton has the slight edge in actual production. This game looks too close to call but eminently watchable. Look for Southampton to keep the streak alive and Adama Traore to finally find the back of the net.
Prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Wolves
Arsenal v Tottenham
For a period of time, the North London derby helped decide Champions League places. Then, for a while, it was a battle over Europa League qualification. Now, it looks like it may decide who makes the Europa Conference League. While Arsenal and Tottenham have fallen on hard times, the derby should still retain its zest.
It's hard to determine who's the better of the two. Tottenham started the season with three 1-0 wins, only to be waxed 3-0 in their next two contests. Arsenal started with three consecutive defeats, getting outscored nine goals to zero, before righting the ship with two 1-0 victories over teams in the relegation zone. Neither team has been convincing, but both have far greater talent than the product they've mustered on the field.
Soccer Football - Premier League - Arsenal v Liverpool - Emirates Stadium, London, Britain - April 3, 2021 Liverpool's Mohamed Salah in action with Arsenal's Gabriel Magalhaes
© REUTERS / JULIAN FINNEY
Derbies are known to be wild affairs as each team needs a win, but neither can afford a loss. There's a chance this game devolves into an ugly slugfest where entertainment takes a backseat to pragmatism. Chances are it'll be a low-scoring affair, with the winner, if there is a winner, netting a late goal.
Prediction: Arsenal 0 - 0 Tottenham
Crystal Palace v Brighton
The final game of the matchweek is a battle between two clubs on wildly different ends of the standings. Brighton currently resides in fourth place in the table with 12 points, while Crystal Palace is in 14th with five points. The standings are supported by the two's goal differentials as well, as Brighton is at +3 and Palace are at -3. With all that being said, this should be a close game.
Brighton is not nearly as good and Palace nearly as bad as their results. In fact, expected goals view the two as being near equals. Brighton has a -0.5 expected goal differential and Palace's comes in at -1.0. However, Brighton is likely the better side, all things considered. Most of Palace's "good metrics" come from their drubbing of a ten-man Tottenham. Outside of that victory, they do resemble a mid-table club at best.
Brighton won't be in a Champions League spot for long and Palace will start to separate from the relegation pack, but it won't be this week.
